{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08544d70-3761-4388-8616-c6e65f90d4cb", "symbol": "AM30", "name": "Amundi MSCIWorld PAB UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.527, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.579, "architecture_energy": 52.232, "architecture_maturity": 65.127, "architecture_confidence": 69.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.13, "rotation_up": 45.49, "upward_expansion": 75.22, "deceleration": 91.45, "rotation_down": 29.56, "downward_expansion": 13.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.369334, 76.31582, 75.285382, 73.300388 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.230003, "trend_reference": 71.015667, "distance_from_trend": 0.101588, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.342128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.23141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.176391, "excess_performance": 0.002144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024533, "annualized_volatility": 0.15536, "from_high_reference": -0.001277, "from_low_reference": 0.262181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.015667, "fair_value_reference": 61.342128, "structural_low": 62.169998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007059, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045013, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 46.075001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.462653, "energy": 53.702516, "activity_lines": [ 76.012669, 76.137638, 74.46343, 72.52499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.949997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 70.708001, "fair_value": 61.2215, "relative_strength": -8.632692, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.270182, "energy": 42.378301, "activity_lines": [ 75.64, 75.929274, 74.740334, 72.815097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.230003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 71.015667, "fair_value": 61.342128, "relative_strength": -7.23141, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.579204, "energy": 52.231783, "activity_lines": [ 76.369334, 76.31582, 75.285382, 73.300388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }