{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0855c168-3851-47d9-b0c9-964ea20065b5", "symbol": "000981", "name": "Sensteed Hi-Tech Group", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.687, "architecture_energy": 61.545, "architecture_maturity": 50.587, "architecture_confidence": 90.158, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 22.08, "upward_expansion": 11.04, "deceleration": 58.91, "rotation_down": 60.52, "downward_expansion": 84.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.696, 2.773818, 3.146143, 3.44957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.98, "trend_reference": 3.864667, "distance_from_trend": -0.228912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.337244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.163699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.360515, "excess_performance": -0.367915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.535684, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.360515, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.586714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3165781924, "relative_activity": 2.292058, "balance": 1.586714, "dry_up": 1.155165, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124935, "annualized_volatility": 0.503743, "from_high_reference": -0.474427, "from_low_reference": 0.49 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.864667, "fair_value_reference": 2.337244, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.013849, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.011931, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.451327, "worst_return": -0.362963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.1125, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.101724, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.733871, "worst_return": -0.081481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.10183, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.202426, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.946903, "worst_return": -0.07377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.92, 3.191091, 3.54219, 3.791097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.42, "volume": 1061559134, "typical_volume": 1471064299.05, "trend": 3.965, "fair_value": 2.314487, "relative_strength": -32.224049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.01491, "energy": 93.329967, "activity_lines": [ 2.726667, 3.004364, 3.407667, 3.689871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.44, "volume": 1054924405, "typical_volume": 1403634416.55, "trend": 3.935667, "fair_value": 2.320449, "relative_strength": -31.918871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.455649, "energy": 89.699214, "activity_lines": [ 2.592, 2.85, 3.287143, 3.591484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 1099770584, "typical_volume": 1368456380.5, "trend": 3.904, "fair_value": 2.327949, "relative_strength": -24.764129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.647339, "energy": 77.840259, "activity_lines": [ 2.584, 2.771455, 3.197714, 3.509183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.98, "volume": 3165781924, "typical_volume": 1381195982.6, "trend": 3.864667, "fair_value": 2.337244, "relative_strength": -20.163699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.687452, "energy": 61.545423, "activity_lines": [ 2.696, 2.773818, 3.146143, 3.44957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }