{ "ticker": { "uuid": "085b29e3-0f32-4420-91a0-68198d0381f8", "symbol": "PRAM", "name": "Amundi Prime Emerging Markets UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.12, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.338, "architecture_energy": 18.293, "architecture_maturity": 64.383, "architecture_confidence": 89.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.56, "rotation_up": 16.02, "upward_expansion": 45.43, "deceleration": 87.86, "rotation_down": 43.09, "downward_expansion": 30.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.813167, 29.250819, 29.375536, 28.831715 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.315001, "trend_reference": 28.12575, "distance_from_trend": 0.042283, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.067189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.151763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096605, "excess_performance": 0.04537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042283, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120673, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.955525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21129, "relative_activity": 0.378672, "balance": 0.955525, "dry_up": 0.766686, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043099, "annualized_volatility": 0.24617, "from_high_reference": -0.064763, "from_low_reference": 0.339808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.12575, "fair_value_reference": 21.067189, "structural_low": 24.334999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020604, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.002021, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.14359, "worst_return": -0.047979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054301, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208694, "worst_return": 0.030041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082588, "worst_return": 0.031429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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2.630449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.412184, "energy": 19.069307, "activity_lines": [ 29.489834, 29.812955, 29.321322, 28.661011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.522499, "volume": 58752, "typical_volume": 56284.6, "trend": 27.888084, "fair_value": 20.913112, "relative_strength": 2.309876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.573374, "energy": 21.246892, "activity_lines": [ 29.026167, 29.566637, 29.32981, 28.710629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.450001, "volume": 26604, "typical_volume": 55817.65, "trend": 28.000084, "fair_value": 20.985785, "relative_strength": 0.619699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.084602, "energy": 19.93954, "activity_lines": [ 28.722834, 29.319728, 29.318381, 28.746882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.315001, "volume": 21129, "typical_volume": 55797.65, "trend": 28.12575, "fair_value": 21.067189, "relative_strength": 3.151763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.338106, "energy": 18.293019, "activity_lines": [ 28.813167, 29.250819, 29.375536, 28.831715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }