{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0860e782-21b4-4f9d-86cf-a93e4f5c99bf", "symbol": "AGX", "name": "Argan Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.905, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.53, "architecture_energy": 19.353, "architecture_maturity": 38.42, "architecture_confidence": 71.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.08, "rotation_up": 15.24, "upward_expansion": 41.74, "deceleration": 83.01, "rotation_down": 43.82, "downward_expansion": 35.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 580.435512, 619.506281, 643.845577, 618.523126 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 597.33, "trend_reference": 565.782646, "distance_from_trend": 0.055759, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.844174, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.742006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.45667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.697828, "excess_performance": 0.572203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.742006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.344011, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.204567, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605212, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.697828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.656996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 920461, "relative_activity": 0.524205, "balance": 1.656996, "dry_up": 0.914106, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178682, "annualized_volatility": 0.57894, "from_high_reference": -0.25805, "from_low_reference": 2.043949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 565.782646, "fair_value_reference": 217.844174, "structural_low": 352.59817, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085895, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.079712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247945, "worst_return": -0.040576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.21014, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.173283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.877467, "worst_return": -0.031717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.455081, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.358272, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.04619, "worst_return": 0.193775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 1647305, "typical_volume": 1935495.2, "trend": 548.074122, "fair_value": 210.853074, "relative_strength": 22.983595, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.677485, "energy": 15.207093, "activity_lines": [ 607.543743, 646.275605, 653.631584, 614.430212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 570.43, "volume": 1956757, "typical_volume": 1905648.4, "trend": 556.245705, "fair_value": 214.265345, "relative_strength": 20.497268, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.112882, "energy": 20.199836, "activity_lines": [ 583.026458, 629.664398, 647.725417, 615.872526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 597.33, "volume": 920461, "typical_volume": 1755918.75, "trend": 565.782646, "fair_value": 217.844174, "relative_strength": 20.45667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.529771, "energy": 19.353131, "activity_lines": [ 580.435512, 619.506281, 643.845577, 618.523126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }