{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0863ca92-0321-4716-9d93-18205fe5b805", "symbol": "SP5USY", "name": "UBS Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.589, "architecture_energy": 74.489, "architecture_maturity": 69.812, "architecture_confidence": 80.173, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 62.84, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.21, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.081333, 98.322182, 96.460857, 94.060617 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 101.599998, "trend_reference": 91.309995, "distance_from_trend": 0.112693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.504931, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277908, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.39364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17889, "excess_performance": 0.096007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112693, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065259, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023936, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.779045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7479, "relative_activity": 1.611524, "balance": 4.779045, "dry_up": 1.354572, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016293, "annualized_volatility": 0.121827, "from_high_reference": -0.068729, "from_low_reference": 0.233908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.309995, "fair_value_reference": 79.504931, "structural_low": 82.339996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.017311, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.009735, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.062822, "worst_return": -0.08525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034911, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.022786, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.165044, "worst_return": -0.210883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040854, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.025287, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.188186, "worst_return": -0.114025, "sufficient": true }, { 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89.878272, "fair_value": 78.556513, "relative_strength": 1.537737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.936747, "energy": 80.30122, "activity_lines": [ 97.560001, 96.791091, 93.938095, 91.911063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.610001, "volume": 4835, "typical_volume": 6289.0, "trend": 90.23035, "fair_value": 78.78671, "relative_strength": -0.282944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.652465, "energy": 71.975599, "activity_lines": [ 97.703335, 97.084728, 94.55019, 92.409884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.5, "volume": 8514, "typical_volume": 4859.15, "trend": 90.597514, "fair_value": 79.018276, "relative_strength": 0.723527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.977719, "energy": 77.698233, "activity_lines": [ 98.014001, 97.452364, 95.187714, 92.94341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.220001, "volume": 4318, "typical_volume": 4450.8, "trend": 90.905774, "fair_value": 79.245726, "relative_strength": -0.64823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.585634, "energy": 64.860393, "activity_lines": [ 97.840668, 97.509273, 95.645333, 93.370667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.599998, "volume": 7479, "typical_volume": 4640.95, "trend": 91.309995, "fair_value": 79.504931, "relative_strength": 2.39364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.588876, "energy": 74.488957, "activity_lines": [ 99.081333, 98.322182, 96.460857, 94.060617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }