{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08698f06-628b-453c-b14d-c996a45258c6", "symbol": "VIVA3", "name": "Vivara Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.081, "architecture_energy": 43.555, "architecture_maturity": 68.278, "architecture_confidence": 91.344, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.37, "rotation_up": 24.85, "upward_expansion": 5.69, "deceleration": 56.49, "rotation_down": 47.96, "downward_expansion": 76.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.969333, 22.166909, 22.627, 23.691613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.629999, "trend_reference": 25.188667, "distance_from_trend": -0.141281, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.04166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.406264, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.257976, "excess_performance": -0.200928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122821, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136239, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244063, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008697, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.298408, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19509800, "relative_activity": 1.777071, "balance": 0.298408, "dry_up": 1.404592, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076319, "annualized_volatility": 0.394351, "from_high_reference": -0.39735, "from_low_reference": 0.075584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.188667, "fair_value_reference": 25.04166, "structural_low": 20.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000159, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.166814, "worst_return": -0.151109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.060057, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.015484, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.32551, "worst_return": -0.085825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091592, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.064981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425818, "worst_return": -0.055972, "sufficient": true }, { 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26.945004, "fair_value": 25.204183, "relative_strength": -24.013073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.057001, "energy": 43.853332, "activity_lines": [ 22.242667, 22.187637, 23.633333, 24.973941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.530001, "volume": 12610700, "typical_volume": 12867055.0, "trend": 26.574411, "fair_value": 25.18868, "relative_strength": -22.623523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.942476, "energy": 33.206911, "activity_lines": [ 22.825334, 22.348364, 23.483524, 24.753618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.440001, "volume": 13419400, "typical_volume": 12521955.0, "trend": 26.222, "fair_value": 25.158305, "relative_strength": -23.942563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.961684, "energy": 24.690264, "activity_lines": [ 22.837334, 22.352364, 23.264286, 24.486882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.42, "volume": 16359900, "typical_volume": 12427210.0, "trend": 25.835333, "fair_value": 25.122407, "relative_strength": -27.023275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.492751, "energy": 34.784259, "activity_lines": [ 22.435334, 22.213273, 22.989381, 24.177075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.18, "volume": 12392900, "typical_volume": 11434295.0, "trend": 25.499333, "fair_value": 25.08523, "relative_strength": -25.557189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.886766, "energy": 31.678417, "activity_lines": [ 22.248667, 22.24, 22.827667, 23.941247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.629999, "volume": 19509800, "typical_volume": 10978630.0, "trend": 25.188667, "fair_value": 25.04166, "relative_strength": -24.406264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.080743, "energy": 43.554712, "activity_lines": [ 21.969333, 22.166909, 22.627, 23.691613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }