{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0869c9bc-c1c4-497e-9cc4-cfd4e2bff0c8", "symbol": "EBQ", "name": "Ebiquity plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.614, "architecture_energy": 90.233, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.374, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.29, "rotation_up": 9.32, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 83.96, "downward_expansion": 99.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.094733, 0.098636, 0.103448, 0.108282 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.09375, "trend_reference": 0.11475, "distance_from_trend": -0.183007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.247792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.621658, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.708001, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.273256, "excess_performance": -0.324491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.621658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148720, "relative_activity": 0.334233, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.648925, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050462, "annualized_volatility": 0.134388, "from_high_reference": -0.573864, "from_low_reference": 0.041667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.11475, "fair_value_reference": 0.247792, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.024319, "positive_rate": 0.305556, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.030711, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.110917, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.246154, "worst_return": -0.302564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.082833, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.144348, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.261538, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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"direction": -71.098468, "energy": 54.638727, "activity_lines": [ 0.105467, 0.106527, 0.110214, 0.114284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.09625, "volume": 448979, "typical_volume": 433169.45, "trend": 0.118175, "fair_value": 0.254899, "relative_strength": -35.578652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.675514, "energy": 69.320667, "activity_lines": [ 0.102183, 0.104464, 0.108469, 0.112791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.09375, "volume": 149096, "typical_volume": 431250.25, "trend": 0.11705, "fair_value": 0.252519, "relative_strength": -36.571395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.464935, "energy": 91.373467, "activity_lines": [ 0.098817, 0.102223, 0.106635, 0.111216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.09375, "volume": 408185, "typical_volume": 449187.1, "trend": 0.115925, "fair_value": 0.250139, "relative_strength": -35.790623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.064623, "energy": 91.786816, "activity_lines": [ 0.096367, 0.100305, 0.104961, 0.109712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.09375, "volume": 148720, "typical_volume": 444959.0, "trend": 0.11475, "fair_value": 0.247792, "relative_strength": -34.708001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.614158, "energy": 90.232531, "activity_lines": [ 0.094733, 0.098636, 0.103448, 0.108282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }