{ "ticker": { "uuid": "086a6c0b-4841-42ce-b7c1-be0ed4146e03", "symbol": "NAII", "name": "Natural Alternatives International", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.703, "architecture_energy": 37.76, "architecture_maturity": 69.051, "architecture_confidence": 86.825, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 23.66, "upward_expansion": 4.47, "deceleration": 59.58, "rotation_down": 49.04, "downward_expansion": 77.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.3253, 2.350345, 2.445685, 2.543019 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.3699, "trend_reference": 2.788617, "distance_from_trend": -0.150152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.459316, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.468551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.708355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.261713, "excess_performance": -0.449167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110949, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.468551, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.317084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.659966, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47804, "relative_activity": 0.446382, "balance": 0.659966, "dry_up": 0.534794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112221, "annualized_volatility": 0.526294, "from_high_reference": -0.522198, "from_low_reference": 0.136643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.788617, "fair_value_reference": 4.459316, "structural_low": 2.085, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.014485, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030441, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.330275, "worst_return": -0.206474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.11875, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.105236, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.504587, "worst_return": -0.280142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.124477, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.158245, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046991, "worst_return": -0.291457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 2.4, "volume": 67195, "typical_volume": 113677.75, "trend": 2.904953, "fair_value": 4.522266, "relative_strength": -28.748166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.310845, "energy": 51.712606, "activity_lines": [ 2.313333, 2.383091, 2.488348, 2.614417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.29, "volume": 65268, "typical_volume": 111910.15, "trend": 2.86162, "fair_value": 4.489317, "relative_strength": -31.525945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.339998, "energy": 45.699192, "activity_lines": [ 2.302667, 2.357091, 2.462235, 2.574743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3699, "volume": 47804, "typical_volume": 107092.25, "trend": 2.788617, "fair_value": 4.459316, "relative_strength": -31.708355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.703493, "energy": 37.759726, "activity_lines": [ 2.3253, 2.350345, 2.445685, 2.543019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }