{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0872f494-5e4c-4409-99cd-ab2ec28ffa03", "symbol": "CSGP", "name": "CoStar Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.958, "architecture_energy": 50.824, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.412, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.44, "rotation_up": 28.35, "upward_expansion": 8.31, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 46.83, "downward_expansion": 79.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.144667, 29.495455, 31.135429, 33.918258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.24, "trend_reference": 39.257667, "distance_from_trend": -0.229705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 71.667821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.578053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.750114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.398568, "excess_performance": -0.586022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.578053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.527501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398568, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32483642, "relative_activity": 0.918429, "balance": 0.968036, "dry_up": 1.16166, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103556, "annualized_volatility": 0.463537, "from_high_reference": -0.681517, "from_low_reference": 0.167838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.257667, "fair_value_reference": 71.667821, "structural_low": 25.894, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.024699, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.01834, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.160654, "worst_return": -0.311448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034372, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.067178, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.338454, "worst_return": -0.31923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009285, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.377368, "worst_return": -0.495167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -65.995025, "energy": 63.329899, "activity_lines": [ 29.538667, 30.594909, 32.740524, 36.351269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.66, "volume": 31569157, "typical_volume": 34214479.25, "trend": 41.430333, "fair_value": 72.329679, "relative_strength": -56.708994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.586382, "energy": 66.894976, "activity_lines": [ 28.856, 29.913091, 31.999286, 35.378237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.76, "volume": 57571890, "typical_volume": 35743144.85, "trend": 40.199333, "fair_value": 71.992179, "relative_strength": -54.005575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.769848, "energy": 58.876193, "activity_lines": [ 28.704, 29.522545, 31.461476, 34.560796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.24, "volume": 32483642, "typical_volume": 35368719.35, "trend": 39.257667, "fair_value": 71.667821, "relative_strength": -52.750114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.957823, "energy": 50.824229, "activity_lines": [ 29.144667, 29.495455, 31.135429, 33.918258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }