{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08760ccc-9dae-4891-a18c-753435219599", "symbol": "KRN", "name": "Karnalyte Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.557, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -44.975, "architecture_energy": 47.291, "architecture_maturity": 40.958, "architecture_confidence": 65.743, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.07, "rotation_up": 19.38, "upward_expansion": 15.99, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 62.45, "downward_expansion": 55.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.276, 0.286, 0.305905, 0.30643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.291667, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.185833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345291, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.685358, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.388889, "excess_performance": 0.268468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.686546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.726351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.388889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369794, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145000, "relative_activity": 1.117534, "balance": 0.369794, "dry_up": 0.665896, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16, "annualized_volatility": 0.87679, "from_high_reference": -0.519231, "from_low_reference": 1.777778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.291667, "fair_value_reference": 0.185833, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.124715, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 2.34375, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.365327, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.401002, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.052632, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.473684, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.370231, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.308894, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.408558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15625, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.7, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.421053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.346154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21875, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.23, "volume": 55300, "typical_volume": 38070.0, "trend": 0.234, "fair_value": 0.30609, "relative_strength": -9.387026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"relative_strength": 19.803114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.13571, "energy": 17.52843, "activity_lines": [ 0.298667, 0.305818, 0.320762, 0.309828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.29, "volume": 63900, "typical_volume": 206780.0, "trend": 0.291, "fair_value": 0.185128, "relative_strength": 18.177174, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.174453, "energy": 13.491501, "activity_lines": [ 0.296667, 0.301455, 0.317333, 0.309785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 65900, "typical_volume": 145175.0, "trend": 0.291, "fair_value": 0.185577, "relative_strength": 13.577587, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.041066, "energy": 13.184401, "activity_lines": [ 0.291333, 0.296, 0.31281, 0.309075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 145000, "typical_volume": 129750.0, "trend": 0.291667, "fair_value": 0.185833, "relative_strength": -2.685358, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.975303, "energy": 47.291289, "activity_lines": [ 0.276, 0.286, 0.305905, 0.30643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }