{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08769d4b-876a-4a5f-827f-a6d2f8d0a20d", "symbol": "2516", "name": "New Asia Construction & Development Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.304, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.546, "architecture_energy": 21.488, "architecture_maturity": 7.317, "architecture_confidence": 51.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.43, "rotation_up": 50.87, "upward_expansion": 43.49, "deceleration": 27.33, "rotation_down": 20.37, "downward_expansion": 16.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.036667, 13.95, 13.624286, 13.628172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.0, "trend_reference": 13.773333, "distance_from_trend": 0.016457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.814744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.464024, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027778, "excess_performance": -0.46915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135048, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.241684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800620, "relative_activity": 0.589499, "balance": 3.241684, "dry_up": 0.469773, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060989, "annualized_volatility": 0.246875, "from_high_reference": -0.125, "from_low_reference": 0.186441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.773333, "fair_value_reference": 13.814744, "structural_low": 11.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.024351, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024351, "worst_return": 0.024351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.047078, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047078, "worst_return": -0.047078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.154221, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.154221, "worst_return": -0.154221, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074349, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"down", "direction": -28.542087, "energy": 16.6233, "activity_lines": [ 13.363333, 13.14, 13.292381, 13.576667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.1, "volume": 887065, "typical_volume": 1573248.0, "trend": 13.95, "fair_value": 13.480641, "relative_strength": -37.465748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.460979, "energy": 16.864179, "activity_lines": [ 13.666667, 13.326364, 13.343095, 13.585591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1506747.2, "trend": 13.901667, "fair_value": 13.533077, "relative_strength": -36.471707, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.169815, "energy": 16.270792, "activity_lines": [ 13.73, 13.408182, 13.352381, 13.566237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.9, "volume": 3600882, "typical_volume": 1581181.55, "trend": 13.861667, "fair_value": 13.588718, "relative_strength": -30.125669, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.737353, "energy": 14.541407, "activity_lines": [ 13.81, 13.535455, 13.389762, 13.566129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.15, "volume": 546374, "typical_volume": 1547900.65, "trend": 13.836667, "fair_value": 13.645449, "relative_strength": -29.372529, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.408537, "energy": 24.917937, "activity_lines": [ 13.946667, 13.695455, 13.45619, 13.584731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.05, "volume": 608138, "typical_volume": 1470349.6, "trend": 13.806667, "fair_value": 13.7025, "relative_strength": -27.936839, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.342981, "energy": 26.655072, "activity_lines": [ 13.996667, 13.811818, 13.514762, 13.598495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.05, "volume": 596929, "typical_volume": 1421083.65, "trend": 13.783333, "fair_value": 13.759103, "relative_strength": -28.677131, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.999636, "energy": 26.424268, "activity_lines": [ 14.023333, 13.897273, 13.571905, 13.614194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.0, "volume": 800620, "typical_volume": 1358135.8, "trend": 13.773333, "fair_value": 13.814744, "relative_strength": -30.464024, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.54596, "energy": 21.487511, "activity_lines": [ 14.036667, 13.95, 13.624286, 13.628172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }