{ "ticker": { "uuid": "087e0b5e-f5fe-489d-a0a5-a30f71a43971", "symbol": "GSIE", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST ACTIVEBETA INTL EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.477, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.498, "architecture_energy": 81.733, "architecture_maturity": 33.778, "architecture_confidence": 71.154, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.71, "rotation_up": 81.0, "upward_expansion": 95.36, "deceleration": 39.29, "rotation_down": 11.24, "downward_expansion": 17.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.014, 46.450553, 45.830369, 45.400233 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 48.26, "trend_reference": 45.008982, "distance_from_trend": 0.07223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.402554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.898314, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064432, "excess_performance": -0.061193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024419, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064432, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.882302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1448348, "relative_activity": 0.680992, "balance": 1.882302, "dry_up": 0.882879, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022805, "annualized_volatility": 0.169898, "from_high_reference": -0.000894, "from_low_reference": 0.22487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.008982, "fair_value_reference": 36.402554, "structural_low": 41.401865, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.01533, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.005785, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.058843, "worst_return": -0.070111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.043373, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.02923, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.078416, "worst_return": -0.094439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021107, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.062722, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.150053, "worst_return": -0.0029, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.369181, "energy": 51.80618, "activity_lines": [ 45.784776, 45.481522, 45.047087, 44.854633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.99, "volume": 2222904, "typical_volume": 2370726.0, "trend": 44.634195, "fair_value": 36.064788, "relative_strength": -1.780057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.768065, "energy": 48.969138, "activity_lines": [ 45.88419, 45.610813, 45.174538, 44.949499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.94, "volume": 1466392, "typical_volume": 2289251.0, "trend": 44.729984, "fair_value": 36.16667, "relative_strength": -1.281184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.232327, "energy": 53.725121, "activity_lines": [ 45.933333, 45.717541, 45.29963, 45.033745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.01, "volume": 2373256, "typical_volume": 2244392.45, "trend": 44.859447, "fair_value": 36.280845, "relative_strength": -0.093218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.1405, "energy": 65.124105, "activity_lines": [ 46.324667, 45.988304, 45.515744, 45.180842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.26, "volume": 1448348, "typical_volume": 2126820.85, "trend": 45.008982, "fair_value": 36.402554, "relative_strength": -0.898314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.498307, "energy": 81.732992, "activity_lines": [ 47.014, 46.450553, 45.830369, 45.400233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }