{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08896dc3-cb0d-4ddd-b1cf-88c4785dbc42", "symbol": "PEP", "name": "PepsiCo, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.347, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.853, "architecture_energy": 51.67, "architecture_maturity": 13.221, "architecture_confidence": 93.193, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.75, "rotation_up": 18.43, "upward_expansion": 8.84, "deceleration": 45.57, "rotation_down": 58.68, "downward_expansion": 82.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.396002, 121.563637, 123.766247, 126.029944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 119.760002, "trend_reference": 128.121254, "distance_from_trend": -0.06526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.443302, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.705395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139771, "excess_performance": -0.204411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001904, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139771, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695566, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32712, "relative_activity": 2.175622, "balance": 0.695566, "dry_up": 2.204703, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038918, "annualized_volatility": 0.167085, "from_high_reference": -0.153448, "from_low_reference": 0.049666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 128.121254, "fair_value_reference": 132.443302, "structural_low": 117.699997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004896, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.009175, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.081166, "worst_return": -0.072327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.062097, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140175, "worst_return": -0.186114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082691, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029364, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.127587, "worst_return": -0.223841, "sufficient": false }, { 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11489.55, "trend": 127.990165, "fair_value": 133.039515, "relative_strength": -5.276796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.319231, "energy": 46.18123, "activity_lines": [ 122.417334, 123.169636, 125.811796, 127.526549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.620003, "volume": 24129, "typical_volume": 11930.5, "trend": 127.974487, "fair_value": 132.819411, "relative_strength": -7.707217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.565299, "energy": 59.246012, "activity_lines": [ 121.256001, 122.393194, 124.995447, 126.986538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.44, "volume": 46136, "typical_volume": 13757.6, "trend": 128.052726, "fair_value": 132.632409, "relative_strength": -8.175963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.224873, "energy": 57.131011, "activity_lines": [ 121.009335, 122.079216, 124.420949, 126.564958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.760002, "volume": 32712, "typical_volume": 15035.7, "trend": 128.121254, "fair_value": 132.443302, "relative_strength": -11.705395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.852901, "energy": 51.670235, "activity_lines": [ 120.396002, 121.563637, 123.766247, 126.029944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }