{ "ticker": { "uuid": "089130c7-ece9-4f65-a381-76303f45c7b6", "symbol": "NOG", "name": "Northern Oil & Gas Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.336, "architecture_energy": 30.05, "architecture_maturity": 74.302, "architecture_confidence": 80.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.42, "rotation_up": 33.67, "upward_expansion": 21.3, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 25.89, "downward_expansion": 59.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.136, 20.321284, 21.158966, 22.503104 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.6, "trend_reference": 23.76952, "distance_from_trend": -0.091273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.227283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.387627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144892, "excess_performance": -0.270517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260964, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021253, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009298, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11807249, "relative_activity": 0.855351, "balance": 0.488126, "dry_up": 0.968123, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087499, "annualized_volatility": 0.434903, "from_high_reference": -0.2966, "from_low_reference": 0.257276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.76952, "fair_value_reference": 29.227283, "structural_low": 17.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.024513, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.027955, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.178273, "worst_return": -0.198673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000519, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.07381, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.27557, "worst_return": -0.143596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.195351, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.1081, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.352611, "worst_return": -0.169512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }