{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08915b51-9ad1-4da5-80dd-99ce6d8c9562", "symbol": "ONCO3", "name": "Oncocl\u00ednicas do Brasil Servi\u00e7os M\u00e9dicos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.75, "architecture_energy": 85.594, "architecture_maturity": 60.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.512, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 9.91, "upward_expansion": 21.33, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 80.78, "downward_expansion": 99.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.625333, 0.827273, 1.045381, 1.254946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.62, "trend_reference": 1.589333, "distance_from_trend": -0.609899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.367786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.884496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.446762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.751004, "excess_performance": -0.693956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.609899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.884496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.714468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.751004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59450500, "relative_activity": 1.45224, "balance": 0.929785, "dry_up": 1.611665, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.478908, "annualized_volatility": 1.222895, "from_high_reference": -0.888489, "from_low_reference": 0.148148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.589333, "fair_value_reference": 5.367786, "structural_low": 0.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.063321, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.072467, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 1.15859, "worst_return": -0.509009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.131976, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.19443, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.405983, "worst_return": -0.555133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.284735, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.38564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.311927, "worst_return": -0.756425, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.480136, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.603538, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.155963, "worst_return": -0.804309, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088496, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.799795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120658, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088146, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.619632, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.4, "volume": 11884600, "typical_volume": 12544922.05, "trend": 9.374772, "fair_value": 8.594509, "relative_strength": 31.951696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -75.912874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.289808, "energy": 84.558701, "activity_lines": [ 0.809333, 1.014182, 1.177095, 1.398323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.55, "volume": 23257500, "typical_volume": 41808515.0, "trend": 1.66, "fair_value": 5.441055, "relative_strength": -76.790063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.586828, "energy": 87.975073, "activity_lines": [ 0.678, 0.906182, 1.10481, 1.322043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.62, "volume": 59450500, "typical_volume": 40937100.0, "trend": 1.589333, "fair_value": 5.367786, "relative_strength": -71.446762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.750265, "energy": 85.594108, "activity_lines": [ 0.625333, 0.827273, 1.045381, 1.254946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }