{ "ticker": { "uuid": "089327d7-84a4-4be7-8715-ea06eab1bf81", "symbol": "300985", "name": "Changchun Zhiyuan New Energy Equipment Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.296, "architecture_energy": 25.366, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.41, "rotation_up": 25.7, "upward_expansion": 58.17, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 35.26, "downward_expansion": 21.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.31, 35.836727, 32.294428, 29.842473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.700001, "trend_reference": 26.854666, "distance_from_trend": 0.254903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.801008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478005, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 38.874966, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.613212, "excess_performance": 0.605812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.254903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.247449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.432789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.38875, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.437966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.613212, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.602414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23271600, "relative_activity": 1.263188, "balance": 0.602414, "dry_up": 1.438457, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215476, "annualized_volatility": 0.883046, "from_high_reference": -0.418965, "from_low_reference": 0.981188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.854666, "fair_value_reference": 22.801008, "structural_low": 19.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057517, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.048573, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.159457, "worst_return": -0.128613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02045, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.498491, "worst_return": -0.183241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.269552, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.213916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045808, "worst_return": -0.584911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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97.989005, "energy": 99.108239, "activity_lines": [ 38.987999, 33.145454, 28.555905, 26.589785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.099998, "volume": 52655998, "typical_volume": 21075469.95, "trend": 24.939, "fair_value": 22.635541, "relative_strength": 86.468615, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.636159, "energy": 95.008441, "activity_lines": [ 42.547332, 36.176363, 30.442428, 28.011527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.549999, "volume": 28522242, "typical_volume": 20504137.3, "trend": 25.511333, "fair_value": 22.690093, "relative_strength": 56.321149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.767135, "energy": 77.612849, "activity_lines": [ 41.231332, 36.869999, 31.217238, 28.696107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.889999, "volume": 29311769, "typical_volume": 19481027.05, "trend": 26.037, "fair_value": 22.739197, "relative_strength": 46.970671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.640306, "energy": 58.866181, "activity_lines": [ 39.077999, 37.036908, 31.797999, 29.236666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.07, "volume": 24896605, "typical_volume": 18800825.9, "trend": 26.343, "fair_value": 22.742671, "relative_strength": 22.887224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.987246, "energy": 27.679522, "activity_lines": [ 34.961999, 35.964727, 31.782571, 29.367828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.700001, "volume": 23271600, "typical_volume": 18422907.85, "trend": 26.854666, "fair_value": 22.801008, "relative_strength": 38.874966, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.295622, "energy": 25.366474, "activity_lines": [ 33.31, 35.836727, 32.294428, 29.842473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }