{ "ticker": { "uuid": "089665a5-ef50-474f-977d-750219c6aa68", "symbol": "KZR", "name": "Kalamazoo Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.197, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.2, "architecture_energy": 12.187, "architecture_maturity": 37.536, "architecture_confidence": 53.583, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.63, "rotation_up": 23.63, "upward_expansion": 14.76, "deceleration": 61.32, "rotation_down": 36.19, "downward_expansion": 64.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.144333, 0.142273, 0.148012, 0.151183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.175, "trend_reference": 0.158833, "distance_from_trend": 0.101784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.116468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.502559, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.562897, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060606, "excess_performance": -0.0031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.502559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015629, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.701442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6516113, "relative_activity": 3.109679, "balance": 0.701442, "dry_up": 1.458354, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143956, "annualized_volatility": 0.962461, "from_high_reference": -0.313725, "from_low_reference": 0.590909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.158833, "fair_value_reference": 0.116468, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.001307, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.351351, "worst_return": -0.301887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.048193, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.05103, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.189655, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.216327, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.184466, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.698718, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.242395, "energy": 47.662064, "activity_lines": [ 0.140333, 0.144545, 0.15031, 0.154968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.125, "volume": 2701178, "typical_volume": 1868915.55, "trend": 0.161167, "fair_value": 0.1165, "relative_strength": -22.763142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.615996, "energy": 48.196183, "activity_lines": [ 0.134667, 0.140136, 0.147774, 0.152484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 2496563, "typical_volume": 1877455.15, "trend": 0.159, "fair_value": 0.116372, "relative_strength": -24.727536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.023319, "energy": 53.156464, "activity_lines": [ 0.131, 0.136364, 0.145429, 0.150151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.175, "volume": 6516113, "typical_volume": 2095429.8, "trend": 0.158833, "fair_value": 0.116468, "relative_strength": 1.562897, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.199807, "energy": 12.186776, "activity_lines": [ 0.144333, 0.142273, 0.148012, 0.151183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }