{ "ticker": { "uuid": "089adcfe-03a6-4a27-97a3-9ef4eeaf6d52", "symbol": "002593", "name": "Xiamen Sunrise Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.026, "architecture_energy": 44.767, "architecture_maturity": 91.052, "architecture_confidence": 63.337, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.24, "rotation_up": 26.8, "upward_expansion": 19.04, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 43.62, "downward_expansion": 69.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.232667, 4.221455, 4.474172, 4.727661 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.33, "trend_reference": 5.076969, "distance_from_trend": -0.147129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.362918, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.772114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259928, "excess_performance": -0.267328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10028, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255419, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60415200, "relative_activity": 1.095246, "balance": 0.683601, "dry_up": 1.462502, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074686, "annualized_volatility": 0.296004, "from_high_reference": -0.431971, "from_low_reference": 0.115979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.076969, "fair_value_reference": 4.362918, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008256, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.001779, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.218391, "worst_return": -0.169537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022012, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.036857, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.221805, "worst_return": -0.198286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134894, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.244531, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.327068, "worst_return": -0.150411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062365, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.055875, "energy": 65.847557, "activity_lines": [ 4.169333, 4.313791, 4.649249, 4.915173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.07, "volume": 79346536, "typical_volume": 56477085.3, "trend": 5.194214, "fair_value": 4.355492, "relative_strength": -23.637789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.699722, "energy": 64.218938, "activity_lines": [ 4.134, 4.238364, 4.56869, 4.838749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.27, "volume": 58435363, "typical_volume": 55635216.9, "trend": 5.127662, "fair_value": 4.35892, "relative_strength": -18.203385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.378458, "energy": 57.282045, "activity_lines": [ 4.182667, 4.217818, 4.515282, 4.779123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.33, "volume": 60415200, "typical_volume": 55161292.05, "trend": 5.076969, "fair_value": 4.362918, "relative_strength": -20.772114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.026182, "energy": 44.766735, "activity_lines": [ 4.232667, 4.221455, 4.474172, 4.727661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }