{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08a47b45-3b1c-4684-93eb-9e448a792506", "symbol": "X5N", "name": "Avarga Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.925, "architecture_energy": 18.874, "architecture_maturity": 63.406, "architecture_confidence": 72.627, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.9, "rotation_up": 22.24, "upward_expansion": 50.93, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 26.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.662, 2.669091, 2.672476, 2.646452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.66, "trend_reference": 2.582333, "distance_from_trend": 0.030076, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.728077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.539283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.18614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131915, "excess_performance": -0.02292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.539283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 486800, "relative_activity": 4.481886, "balance": 0.545692, "dry_up": 2.324725, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009543, "annualized_volatility": 0.188172, "from_high_reference": -0.025641, "from_low_reference": 0.394198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.582333, "fair_value_reference": 1.728077, "structural_low": 2.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006842, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.10204, "worst_return": -0.042735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069767, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.091282, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.217392, "worst_return": -0.057143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.16087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302326, "worst_return": -0.147619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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93400, "typical_volume": 88895.0, "trend": 2.525667, "fair_value": 1.693098, "relative_strength": -2.94261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.700024, "energy": 61.191892, "activity_lines": [ 2.683333, 2.682727, 2.671905, 2.617032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.66, "volume": 107800, "typical_volume": 93855.0, "trend": 2.539667, "fair_value": 1.701842, "relative_strength": -4.541895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.08763, "energy": 49.99213, "activity_lines": [ 2.675333, 2.678909, 2.673762, 2.625699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 50300, "typical_volume": 93465.0, "trend": 2.551667, "fair_value": 1.710523, "relative_strength": -6.40841, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.786728, "energy": 41.221788, "activity_lines": [ 2.666, 2.673455, 2.673381, 2.632817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.67, "volume": 365100, "typical_volume": 100955.0, "trend": 2.567, "fair_value": 1.719374, "relative_strength": -6.506204, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.135175, "energy": 26.059502, "activity_lines": [ 2.666, 2.672, 2.673429, 2.640452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.66, "volume": 486800, "typical_volume": 108615.0, "trend": 2.582333, "fair_value": 1.728077, "relative_strength": -8.18614, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.924676, "energy": 18.874153, "activity_lines": [ 2.662, 2.669091, 2.672476, 2.646452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }