{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08a5021a-21d4-4dca-802d-87c6e95dbefa", "symbol": "KAU", "name": "Kaiser Reef Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.315, "architecture_energy": 57.009, "architecture_maturity": 67.957, "architecture_confidence": 95.726, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 24.52, "upward_expansion": 9.66, "deceleration": 58.71, "rotation_down": 56.34, "downward_expansion": 82.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.188667, 0.193273, 0.209524, 0.230559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2, "trend_reference": 0.261167, "distance_from_trend": -0.234205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.195946, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.579679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322034, "excess_performance": -0.38574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8927605, "relative_activity": 1.517497, "balance": 0.564917, "dry_up": 0.970593, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118269, "annualized_volatility": 0.548913, "from_high_reference": -0.518072, "from_low_reference": 0.212121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.261167, "fair_value_reference": 0.195946, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.018328, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.258065, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039155, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.041488, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.225806, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.098456, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073895, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033333, "worst_return": -0.187442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156863, "active": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.292092, "energy": 63.370897, "activity_lines": [ 0.190667, 0.198364, 0.217619, 0.240462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 4044937, "typical_volume": 6300661.3, "trend": 0.264667, "fair_value": 0.195817, "relative_strength": -32.639943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.995892, "energy": 64.926373, "activity_lines": [ 0.185667, 0.193545, 0.212286, 0.234731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2, "volume": 8927605, "typical_volume": 5883111.4, "trend": 0.261167, "fair_value": 0.195946, "relative_strength": -27.579679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.314831, "energy": 57.009442, "activity_lines": [ 0.188667, 0.193273, 0.209524, 0.230559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }