{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08ad16ad-79cd-4d91-9de2-de90314c7422", "symbol": "AFB", "name": "AllianceBernstein National Municipal Income Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.333, "architecture_energy": 25.284, "architecture_maturity": 59.946, "architecture_confidence": 74.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.91, "rotation_up": 19.2, "upward_expansion": 54.34, "deceleration": 91.1, "rotation_down": 44.29, "downward_expansion": 22.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.953908, 11.075098, 11.062726, 10.982322 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.02, "trend_reference": 10.891154, "distance_from_trend": 0.01183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.114939, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.014875, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021264, "excess_performance": -0.104361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01183, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 322434, "relative_activity": 0.666559, "balance": 0.886529, "dry_up": 0.744978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019976, "annualized_volatility": 0.112909, "from_high_reference": -0.035898, "from_low_reference": 0.13963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.891154, "fair_value_reference": 10.114939, "structural_low": 10.248446, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006702, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.016649, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.049856, "worst_return": -0.047202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000724, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081789, "worst_return": -0.013659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076766, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.02472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120923, "worst_return": -0.066788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013927, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.735637, "energy": 16.144033, "activity_lines": [ 11.081267, 11.155082, 11.065817, 10.975792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.830278, "volume": 250511, "typical_volume": 491879.65, "trend": 10.878937, "fair_value": 10.103026, "relative_strength": -6.593127, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.08015, "energy": 21.338851, "activity_lines": [ 10.96632, 11.09763, 11.055812, 10.973222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.02, "volume": 322434, "typical_volume": 483728.95, "trend": 10.891154, "fair_value": 10.114939, "relative_strength": -8.014875, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.333231, "energy": 25.283524, "activity_lines": [ 10.953908, 11.075098, 11.062726, 10.982322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }