{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08aec930-b4d2-4c29-8151-1abed3b58bfb", "symbol": "BLOK", "name": "AMPLIFY BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.367, "architecture_energy": 14.804, "architecture_maturity": 16.594, "architecture_confidence": 72.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.24, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 40.39, "deceleration": 84.74, "rotation_down": 36.47, "downward_expansion": 32.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.797333, 60.893941, 61.605924, 60.179919 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.89, "trend_reference": 58.955094, "distance_from_trend": 0.015858, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.970589, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.857406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097288, "excess_performance": -0.028337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015858, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008087, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097288, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.33301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 957580, "relative_activity": 0.685908, "balance": 1.33301, "dry_up": 0.718425, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086927, "annualized_volatility": 0.344126, "from_high_reference": -0.205242, "from_low_reference": 0.276972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.955094, "fair_value_reference": 43.970589, "structural_low": 46.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.06383, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.067216, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.162287, "worst_return": -0.160776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.217258, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.098966, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.640804, "worst_return": -0.200191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.195771, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057513, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.440353, 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"energy": 24.409959, "activity_lines": [ 63.08265, 63.523401, 61.616264, 60.054009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.53, "volume": 1040952, "typical_volume": 1503756.7, "trend": 58.965232, "fair_value": 43.257489, "relative_strength": -11.14458, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.077384, "energy": 17.326423, "activity_lines": [ 61.393695, 62.571238, 61.568583, 60.025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.25, "volume": 941057, "typical_volume": 1437161.1, "trend": 59.016428, "fair_value": 43.491256, "relative_strength": -7.706316, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.54859, "energy": 18.719671, "activity_lines": [ 60.64, 62.036866, 61.660665, 60.107888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.26, "volume": 1072316, "typical_volume": 1411043.5, "trend": 59.017094, "fair_value": 43.726822, "relative_strength": -9.988057, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.913945, "energy": 12.534629, "activity_lines": [ 59.986, 61.366503, 61.619747, 60.123603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.89, "volume": 957580, "typical_volume": 1396076.5, "trend": 58.955094, "fair_value": 43.970589, "relative_strength": -11.857406, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.367413, "energy": 14.80417, "activity_lines": [ 59.797333, 60.893941, 61.605924, 60.179919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }