{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08b65efd-aace-47b7-a32a-94fcdb6594af", "symbol": "YAI1", "name": "All Iron Re I Socimi, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.272, "architecture_energy": 86.502, "architecture_maturity": 8.581, "architecture_confidence": 80.808, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.84, "rotation_up": 8.34, "upward_expansion": 19.59, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 82.23, "downward_expansion": 95.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.213333, 14.336364, 14.497619, 14.555054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.1, "trend_reference": 14.57, "distance_from_trend": -0.032258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.056712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.571204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007042, "excess_performance": -0.131473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015803, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169473, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143322, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.075613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6145, "relative_activity": 1.207127, "balance": 0.075613, "dry_up": 2.539288, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013639, "annualized_volatility": 0.101883, "from_high_reference": -0.078431, "from_low_reference": 0.137097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.57, "fair_value_reference": 12.056712, "structural_low": 13.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054546, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054546, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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843, "typical_volume": 2628.5, "trend": 14.55, "fair_value": 11.969728, "relative_strength": -9.803797, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.212971, "energy": 25.582184, "activity_lines": [ 14.54, 14.64, 14.67381, 14.650108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.2, "volume": 44496, "typical_volume": 4853.3, "trend": 14.57, "fair_value": 11.991474, "relative_strength": -10.592886, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.037347, "energy": 61.085745, "activity_lines": [ 14.413333, 14.541818, 14.625714, 14.627527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4834.6, "trend": 14.576667, "fair_value": 12.01322, "relative_strength": -11.976213, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.658122, "energy": 72.996607, "activity_lines": [ 14.32, 14.46, 14.58, 14.603656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.3, "volume": 1065, "typical_volume": 4783.35, "trend": 14.576667, "fair_value": 12.035607, "relative_strength": -11.922706, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.192439, "energy": 67.1628, "activity_lines": [ 14.293333, 14.412727, 14.546667, 14.585806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.1, "volume": 6145, "typical_volume": 5090.6, "trend": 14.57, "fair_value": 12.056712, "relative_strength": -14.571204, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.272146, "energy": 86.502199, "activity_lines": [ 14.213333, 14.336364, 14.497619, 14.555054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }