{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08bcb3ff-feb5-47ef-8301-9977f441fe7f", "symbol": "JAGA", "name": "JPM Global AggregateBond Active UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.093, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.369, "architecture_energy": 25.731, "architecture_maturity": 57.638, "architecture_confidence": 69.78, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.25, "rotation_up": 24.22, "upward_expansion": 62.13, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 16.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.090533, 10.1124, 10.065543, 10.041794 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 10.020133, "distance_from_trend": 0.007971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.978503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012176, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.490266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012633, "excess_performance": -0.158259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007971, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.093655, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6184, "relative_activity": 0.699678, "balance": 0.093655, "dry_up": 1.180792, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006055, "annualized_volatility": 0.037857, "from_high_reference": -0.010967, "from_low_reference": 0.030192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.020133, "fair_value_reference": 9.978503, "structural_low": 9.804, "invalidation": "A 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.021187, "energy": 87.984021, "activity_lines": [ 10.1632, 10.103636, 10.036457, 10.02114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.128, "volume": 15192, "typical_volume": 12632.85, "trend": 10.007867, "fair_value": 9.976444, "relative_strength": -11.345711, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.256409, "energy": 85.761445, "activity_lines": [ 10.157467, 10.117782, 10.047486, 10.029355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.088, "volume": 13080, "typical_volume": 8389.35, "trend": 10.013733, "fair_value": 9.977214, "relative_strength": -11.214293, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.532728, "energy": 56.664506, "activity_lines": [ 10.134267, 10.120982, 10.054476, 10.034525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.044, "volume": 7289, "typical_volume": 8590.4, "trend": 10.0176, "fair_value": 9.977671, "relative_strength": -11.803568, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.530302, "energy": 33.019642, "activity_lines": [ 10.097467, 10.112582, 10.057333, 10.036477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1, "volume": 6184, "typical_volume": 8838.35, "trend": 10.020133, "fair_value": 9.978503, "relative_strength": -13.490266, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.368609, "energy": 25.731375, "activity_lines": [ 10.090533, 10.1124, 10.065543, 10.041794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }