{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08c1b40a-b461-433e-b6d9-9cfd0b8c1aba", "symbol": "GEMS", "name": "PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.156, "architecture_energy": 26.591, "architecture_maturity": 76.067, "architecture_confidence": 66.393, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.42, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 20.62, "deceleration": 45.67, "rotation_down": 24.93, "downward_expansion": 54.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 6593.333333, 6512.272727, 6674.761905, 7005.376344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6700.0, "trend_reference": 7375.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.091525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7592.601597, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.955068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146497, "excess_performance": 0.064592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138973, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.925549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 562000, "relative_activity": 1.735157, "balance": 0.925549, "dry_up": 0.805212, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07147, "annualized_volatility": 0.46265, "from_high_reference": -0.298429, "from_low_reference": 0.175439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7375.0, "fair_value_reference": 7592.601597, "structural_low": 5700.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.003846, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.021579, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.138614, "worst_return": -0.132013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021564, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008698, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180328, "worst_return": -0.18429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065699, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020095, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078975, "worst_return": -0.226361, 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"fair_value": 7552.957275, "relative_strength": -3.776489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.478417, "energy": 38.399168, "activity_lines": [ 6475.0, 6415.909091, 6841.428571, 7174.784946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6600.0, "volume": 213500, "typical_volume": 362400.0, "trend": 7485.0, "fair_value": 7566.66856, "relative_strength": -4.207587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.782534, "energy": 32.777092, "activity_lines": [ 6535.0, 6439.090909, 6777.380952, 7114.139785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6525.0, "volume": 165300, "typical_volume": 348625.0, "trend": 7425.833333, "fair_value": 7579.789094, "relative_strength": -4.933685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.526998, "energy": 30.633924, "activity_lines": [ 6540.0, 6465.454545, 6713.214286, 7052.204301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 6700.0, "volume": 562000, "typical_volume": 323890.0, "trend": 7375.0, "fair_value": 7592.601597, "relative_strength": -3.955068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.15552, "energy": 26.590835, "activity_lines": [ 6593.333333, 6512.272727, 6674.761905, 7005.376344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }