{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08c2728d-e9c7-4f51-8fca-8e97da085b18", "symbol": "Z", "name": "Zillow Group Inc Class C", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.321, "architecture_energy": 33.841, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.28, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.56, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 46.77, "rotation_down": 35.92, "downward_expansion": 64.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.104667, 32.843545, 34.6915, 37.130957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.61, "trend_reference": 41.933833, "distance_from_trend": -0.198499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.411827, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.424603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.053332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.388576, "excess_performance": -0.576029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.424603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.490533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513869, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27377786, "relative_activity": 1.40783, "balance": 0.513869, "dry_up": 0.978635, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119321, "annualized_volatility": 0.54164, "from_high_reference": -0.64199, "from_low_reference": 0.149846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.933833, "fair_value_reference": 58.411827, "structural_low": 29.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.010562, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.033834, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.33441, "worst_return": -0.463283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.161252, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.087645, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.529583, "worst_return": -0.377417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074636, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.152749, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.06862, "worst_return": -0.534368, 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"close": 33.905, "volume": 15198175, "typical_volume": 19775302.95, "trend": 45.468833, "fair_value": 58.846058, "relative_strength": -49.632762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.654029, "energy": 54.681738, "activity_lines": [ 32.865667, 33.138909, 36.152619, 39.344581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.76, "volume": 16629102, "typical_volume": 19505152.1, "trend": 44.167167, "fair_value": 58.700224, "relative_strength": -52.633207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.110286, "energy": 54.856512, "activity_lines": [ 32.266667, 32.570273, 35.408214, 38.395624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.06, "volume": 16920228, "typical_volume": 19358492.7, "trend": 43.105167, "fair_value": 58.557468, "relative_strength": -46.805408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.807572, "energy": 41.307339, "activity_lines": [ 32.857667, 32.727091, 35.050238, 37.743548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.61, "volume": 27377786, "typical_volume": 19446796.2, "trend": 41.933833, "fair_value": 58.411827, "relative_strength": -49.053332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.320866, "energy": 33.840585, "activity_lines": [ 33.104667, 32.843545, 34.6915, 37.130957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }