{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08c8df9a-9524-42b0-85b5-ed2880519549", "symbol": "SAIA", "name": "Saia Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.132, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.101, "architecture_energy": 51.467, "architecture_maturity": 44.914, "architecture_confidence": 77.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.03, "rotation_up": 14.44, "upward_expansion": 24.82, "deceleration": 51.01, "rotation_down": 64.33, "downward_expansion": 49.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 385.142, 405.203273, 424.007381, 416.489054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 364.21, "trend_reference": 404.196667, "distance_from_trend": -0.098929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 402.381378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.603485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123357, "excess_performance": -0.310811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2769390, "relative_activity": 1.272645, "balance": 0.892797, "dry_up": 1.2263, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105636, "annualized_volatility": 0.498854, "from_high_reference": -0.263791, "from_low_reference": 0.460813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 404.196667, "fair_value_reference": 402.381378, "structural_low": 308.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00228, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.031146, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.362772, "worst_return": -0.165735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023762, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052358, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.365596, "worst_return": -0.277443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.246481, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.083887, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.467453, "worst_return": -0.410596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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447.461273, 433.046048, 416.959677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 420.82, "volume": 1787195, "typical_volume": 2254974.6, "trend": 396.965667, "fair_value": 403.054263, "relative_strength": 2.212491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.958779, "energy": 24.272374, "activity_lines": [ 427.7, 441.942364, 433.622857, 418.661613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 436.85, "volume": 2589241, "typical_volume": 2253974.05, "trend": 400.851, "fair_value": 403.273045, "relative_strength": 10.288842, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.839786, "energy": 21.358857, "activity_lines": [ 427.582667, 439.709636, 435.682571, 421.234796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 423.68, "volume": 1540753, "typical_volume": 2178804.45, "trend": 403.939667, "fair_value": 403.258878, "relative_strength": 8.596462, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.162304, "energy": 14.771659, "activity_lines": [ 426.143333, 435.317818, 436.33819, 422.707634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 347.63, "volume": 3774768, "typical_volume": 2179624.85, "trend": 404.288333, "fair_value": 402.767596, "relative_strength": -11.306177, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.668518, "energy": 32.01602, "activity_lines": [ 400.116667, 417.766, 429.446667, 419.074753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 364.21, "volume": 2769390, "typical_volume": 2176089.55, "trend": 404.196667, "fair_value": 402.381378, "relative_strength": -11.603485, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.100918, "energy": 51.467041, "activity_lines": [ 385.142, 405.203273, 424.007381, 416.489054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }