{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08d0991b-b30e-42b9-b886-be7579bc3431", "symbol": "000544", "name": "Zhongyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.772, "architecture_energy": 39.69, "architecture_maturity": 93.012, "architecture_confidence": 93.043, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.1, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 39.48, "downward_expansion": 68.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.324, 7.29736, 7.485006, 7.733159 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.36, "trend_reference": 8.034892, "distance_from_trend": -0.083995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.813206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.260521, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150115, "excess_performance": -0.157515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075114, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150115, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22023302, "relative_activity": 1.047182, "balance": 0.306189, "dry_up": 1.114492, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039344, "annualized_volatility": 0.214278, "from_high_reference": -0.230126, "from_low_reference": 0.054441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.034892, "fair_value_reference": 7.813206, "structural_low": 6.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.001721, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.011272, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.258621, "worst_return": -0.075862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017945, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.003775, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.198123, "worst_return": -0.116265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120616, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222309, "worst_return": 0.042414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.56457, "energy": 91.222325, "activity_lines": [ 7.189908, 7.377741, 7.699182, 7.934228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.39, "volume": 24228014, "typical_volume": 26471721.65, "trend": 8.132559, "fair_value": 7.808594, "relative_strength": -12.132223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.132565, "energy": 84.101382, "activity_lines": [ 7.226667, 7.34882, 7.638579, 7.88445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.15, "volume": 25359199, "typical_volume": 22836008.5, "trend": 8.095559, "fair_value": 7.809832, "relative_strength": -14.737076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.441107, "energy": 74.140173, "activity_lines": [ 7.196667, 7.290582, 7.562642, 7.821059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.44, "volume": 22145030, "typical_volume": 21460482.3, "trend": 8.066892, "fair_value": 7.813659, "relative_strength": -9.376782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.132283, "energy": 53.600574, "activity_lines": [ 7.284, 7.297962, 7.523514, 7.778765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.36, "volume": 22023302, "typical_volume": 21031013.6, "trend": 8.034892, "fair_value": 7.813206, "relative_strength": -14.260521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.772407, "energy": 39.689511, "activity_lines": [ 7.324, 7.29736, 7.485006, 7.733159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }