{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08d3509e-e313-4813-9bd1-2006ca3fc12c", "symbol": "9579", "name": "Intelligent Oud Company for Trading", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.658, "architecture_energy": 15.339, "architecture_maturity": 38.221, "architecture_confidence": 46.957, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.7, "rotation_up": 13.19, "upward_expansion": 9.21, "deceleration": 55.13, "rotation_down": 47.83, "downward_expansion": 65.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.841333, 30.217818, 30.288, 30.240129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.279999, "trend_reference": 30.332667, "distance_from_trend": 0.064199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.495442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.815597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124729, "excess_performance": -0.092899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028156, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175977, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.776964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24911, "relative_activity": 1.009094, "balance": 0.776964, "dry_up": 0.485042, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08574, "annualized_volatility": 0.522023, "from_high_reference": -0.266364, "from_low_reference": 0.256031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.332667, "fair_value_reference": 39.495442, "structural_low": 27.02, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078772, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.062434, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075366, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102083, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047238, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.101468, "worst_return": -0.346977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.295833, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.282853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.295833, "worst_return": -0.295833, 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30.575905, 30.450193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.4, "volume": 4155, "typical_volume": 25553.1, "trend": 30.169333, "fair_value": 39.69993, "relative_strength": -10.205735, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.595024, "energy": 8.543347, "activity_lines": [ 30.204, 30.633454, 30.403524, 30.336731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.6, "volume": 12706, "typical_volume": 25705.15, "trend": 30.184, "fair_value": 39.623379, "relative_strength": -9.423355, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.558305, "energy": 12.056776, "activity_lines": [ 29.554667, 30.286545, 30.257238, 30.235484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.16, "volume": 6124, "typical_volume": 23867.3, "trend": 30.184, "fair_value": 39.544863, "relative_strength": -8.426849, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.47264, "energy": 39.694237, "activity_lines": [ 28.922667, 29.873091, 30.075714, 30.104903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.279999, "volume": 24911, "typical_volume": 24686.5, "trend": 30.332667, "fair_value": 39.495442, "relative_strength": 2.815597, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.658451, "energy": 15.338655, "activity_lines": [ 29.841333, 30.217818, 30.288, 30.240129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }