{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08d4b1e5-1c4d-49bc-8864-31c0370c4ec9", "symbol": "EXSI", "name": "iShares EURO STOXX UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.895, "architecture_energy": 59.852, "architecture_maturity": 53.778, "architecture_confidence": 70.755, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 53.31, "upward_expansion": 80.48, "deceleration": 65.91, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 9.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.121334, 67.851726, 66.621027, 65.411153 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.529999, "trend_reference": 64.177975, "distance_from_trend": 0.083393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.91365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314028, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.116313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103583, "excess_performance": 0.038944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041163, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103583, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79749, "relative_activity": 0.68978, "balance": 0.448439, "dry_up": 0.812796, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02243, "annualized_volatility": 0.171435, "from_high_reference": -0.004581, "from_low_reference": 0.256848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.177975, "fair_value_reference": 52.91365, "structural_low": 56.718059, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.007765, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.003592, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.084271, "worst_return": -0.099352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020539, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001166, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.099191, "worst_return": -0.04737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081212, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.012514, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.155201, "worst_return": -0.167246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.36643, "energy": 60.866194, "activity_lines": [ 67.457334, 67.064016, 65.485796, 64.538054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.370003, "volume": 132206, "typical_volume": 131864.9, "trend": 63.729637, "fair_value": 52.579092, "relative_strength": 6.294785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.209723, "energy": 53.035442, "activity_lines": [ 67.382668, 67.238583, 65.81623, 64.788414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.800003, "volume": 61491, "typical_volume": 117788.2, "trend": 63.947901, "fair_value": 52.740205, "relative_strength": 4.507335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.277134, "energy": 47.919825, "activity_lines": [ 67.488002, 67.412403, 66.154194, 65.051018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.529999, "volume": 79749, "typical_volume": 115615.05, "trend": 64.177975, "fair_value": 52.91365, "relative_strength": 4.116313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.894522, "energy": 59.851787, "activity_lines": [ 68.121334, 67.851726, 66.621027, 65.411153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }