{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08d5f919-6290-4cd0-b28e-7d48cb9df91d", "symbol": "00637L", "name": "Yuanta/P-Shrs CSI 300 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.256, "architecture_energy": 12.723, "architecture_maturity": 31.945, "architecture_confidence": 68.529, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.57, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 44.43, "deceleration": 77.74, "rotation_down": 30.76, "downward_expansion": 31.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.665334, 20.769273, 21.007334, 20.764086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.120001, "trend_reference": 20.477667, "distance_from_trend": 0.031368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.195321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.060683, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066667, "excess_performance": -0.312645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104451089, "relative_activity": 0.915008, "balance": 0.87745, "dry_up": 1.226751, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070149, "annualized_volatility": 0.26733, "from_high_reference": -0.08887, "from_low_reference": 0.352113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.477667, "fair_value_reference": 16.195321, "structural_low": 17.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.004866, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.004012, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.070302, "worst_return": -0.087696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.100902, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.096303, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.015773, "worst_return": -0.15531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107952, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206538, "worst_return": -0.100985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.418836, "energy": 17.958279, "activity_lines": [ 21.042, 21.326364, 21.092952, 20.762237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.290001, "volume": 181278675, "typical_volume": 124089020.9, "trend": 20.453333, "fair_value": 16.083782, "relative_strength": -28.521157, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.6948, "energy": 27.192411, "activity_lines": [ 20.384667, 20.932727, 20.96681, 20.685462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.049999, "volume": 146702830, "typical_volume": 118806446.7, "trend": 20.48, "fair_value": 16.124231, "relative_strength": -23.302621, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.622725, "energy": 16.340337, "activity_lines": [ 20.477333, 20.899091, 21.005714, 20.723957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.450001, "volume": 127717761, "typical_volume": 117131145.0, "trend": 20.468, "fair_value": 16.162821, "relative_strength": -24.051136, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.354408, "energy": 14.452023, "activity_lines": [ 20.438, 20.769091, 20.976714, 20.722022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.120001, "volume": 104451089, "typical_volume": 114153240.75, "trend": 20.477667, "fair_value": 16.195321, "relative_strength": -23.060683, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.256226, "energy": 12.722988, "activity_lines": [ 20.665334, 20.769273, 21.007334, 20.764086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }