{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08e10d86-fd19-4747-994b-e13bddb31cbe", "symbol": "FLAT-B", "name": "Flat Capital AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.095, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.092, "architecture_energy": 25.91, "architecture_maturity": 55.272, "architecture_confidence": 76.353, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.14, "rotation_up": 24.71, "upward_expansion": 56.95, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 35.81, "downward_expansion": 18.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.152667, 11.584, 11.294643, 10.87057 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 10.698833, "distance_from_trend": 0.028149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.838638, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258692, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.036881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.017857, "excess_performance": -0.079352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134893, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204303, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.889353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1343115, "relative_activity": 0.717056, "balance": 1.889353, "dry_up": 0.814982, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107797, "annualized_volatility": 0.537709, "from_high_reference": -0.618718, "from_low_reference": 0.410256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.698833, "fair_value_reference": 14.838638, "structural_low": 7.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.080402, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056867, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.339193, "worst_return": -0.200948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023697, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.029134, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.186728, "worst_return": -0.043059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076569, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292877, "worst_return": -0.544088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026798, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.625634, "worst_return": -0.572038, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.254524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103842, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.229922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.53, "volume": 189047, "typical_volume": 157075.1, "trend": 9.223997, "fair_value": 13.294088, "relative_strength": 4.917156, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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"volume": 1263960, "typical_volume": 2531990.35, "trend": 11.181167, "fair_value": 14.813574, "relative_strength": -24.623739, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.25789, "energy": 41.56685, "activity_lines": [ 12.504667, 12.125, 11.07231, 10.854355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.04, "volume": 2131910, "typical_volume": 2184308.85, "trend": 11.069167, "fair_value": 14.823854, "relative_strength": -32.406413, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.466182, "energy": 32.020022, "activity_lines": [ 12.068667, 12.025636, 11.143762, 10.845247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.25, "volume": 1209723, "typical_volume": 2094322.85, "trend": 10.938833, "fair_value": 14.829016, "relative_strength": -31.035452, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.829236, "energy": 22.192416, "activity_lines": [ 11.787333, 11.926364, 11.222881, 10.856914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.96, "volume": 1421416, "typical_volume": 1986357.25, "trend": 10.8095, "fair_value": 14.829087, "relative_strength": -32.546923, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.771624, "energy": 23.116891, "activity_lines": [ 11.428667, 11.751636, 11.26119, 10.85828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.0, "volume": 1343115, "typical_volume": 1873096.85, "trend": 10.698833, "fair_value": 14.838638, "relative_strength": -32.036881, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.091962, "energy": 25.910273, "activity_lines": [ 11.152667, 11.584, 11.294643, 10.87057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }