{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08eb8396-a795-4b46-a217-aef4b631a64d", "symbol": "AVROIND", "name": "Avro India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.135, "architecture_energy": 74.449, "architecture_maturity": 38.968, "architecture_confidence": 90.086, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 13.24, "upward_expansion": 17.29, "deceleration": 38.14, "rotation_down": 71.81, "downward_expansion": 92.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.995333, 9.446182, 10.170805, 10.759497 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.1, "trend_reference": 11.549633, "distance_from_trend": -0.212096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.709513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.657066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276399, "excess_performance": -0.23269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336227, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2750714, "relative_activity": 2.032727, "balance": 0.797743, "dry_up": 1.246319, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116737, "annualized_volatility": 0.415158, "from_high_reference": -0.446741, "from_low_reference": 0.08076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.549633, "fair_value_reference": 13.709513, "structural_low": 8.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.023877, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018959, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.406577, "worst_return": -0.167139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001985, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.050269, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.375269, "worst_return": -0.13957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.182301, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.095436, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.876861, "worst_return": -0.308401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.756944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.06, "volume": 359302, "typical_volume": 1238600.65, "trend": 11.960367, "fair_value": 13.779513, "relative_strength": -20.500694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.947652, "energy": 53.991667, "activity_lines": [ 10.444, 10.649255, 11.23599, 11.628011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.79, "volume": 1653235, "typical_volume": 1305576.9, "trend": 11.904433, "fair_value": 13.767526, "relative_strength": -21.740577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.874404, "energy": 63.286499, "activity_lines": [ 10.164, 10.442, 11.050781, 11.487987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.17, "volume": 1650717, "typical_volume": 1329263.75, "trend": 11.829633, "fair_value": 13.752045, "relative_strength": -26.487007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.373595, "energy": 74.215036, "activity_lines": [ 9.774667, 10.172545, 10.819171, 11.311572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.82, "volume": 915101, "typical_volume": 1332995.8, "trend": 11.7299, "fair_value": 13.736147, "relative_strength": -27.0287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.91731, "energy": 81.110017, "activity_lines": [ 9.390667, 9.892, 10.576657, 11.117402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.71, "volume": 1429612, "typical_volume": 1323435.9, "trend": 11.627633, "fair_value": 13.722333, "relative_strength": -29.042595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.98169, "energy": 81.404955, "activity_lines": [ 9.065333, 9.618545, 10.344743, 10.92257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.1, "volume": 2750714, "typical_volume": 1353213.6, "trend": 11.549633, "fair_value": 13.709513, "relative_strength": -25.657066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.135089, "energy": 74.448971, "activity_lines": [ 8.995333, 9.446182, 10.170805, 10.759497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }