{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08f146ac-b404-475a-83d0-2d3b4bd1182b", "symbol": "300447", "name": "Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.616, "architecture_energy": 75.763, "architecture_maturity": 29.913, "architecture_confidence": 93.978, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.33, "rotation_up": 15.84, "upward_expansion": 17.33, "deceleration": 40.7, "rotation_down": 70.78, "downward_expansion": 93.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.250667, 13.844545, 15.373048, 16.484986 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.85, "trend_reference": 17.845989, "distance_from_trend": -0.223915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.66585, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055629, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.501986, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271898, "excess_performance": -0.279298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031524, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055629, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.417997, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271898, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18175760, "relative_activity": 0.560941, "balance": 0.368597, "dry_up": 0.664454, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110414, "annualized_volatility": 0.432794, "from_high_reference": -0.42901, "from_low_reference": 0.186804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.845989, "fair_value_reference": 14.66585, "structural_low": 11.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.001731, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.03563, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.132937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.145588, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.090058, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.372381, "worst_return": -0.230112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087459, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044708, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.415238, "worst_return": -0.212508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.974044, "energy": 86.724157, "activity_lines": [ 14.087333, 14.948364, 16.545499, 17.45355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.47, "volume": 23739543, "typical_volume": 37921821.4, "trend": 18.145008, "fair_value": 14.723062, "relative_strength": -26.774682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.192538, "energy": 88.461413, "activity_lines": [ 13.378, 14.351091, 16.051762, 17.07661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.11, "volume": 18729217, "typical_volume": 33942116.4, "trend": 17.985159, "fair_value": 14.685427, "relative_strength": -21.32725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.100517, "energy": 84.250616, "activity_lines": [ 13.139333, 13.989455, 15.661002, 16.751771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.85, "volume": 18175760, "typical_volume": 32402251.35, "trend": 17.845989, "fair_value": 14.66585, "relative_strength": -20.501986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.615733, "energy": 75.762761, "activity_lines": [ 13.250667, 13.844545, 15.373048, 16.484986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }