{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "08f369cc-2c10-4601-bea8-5ec652632fa9",
    "symbol": "WXF",
    "name": "Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 50.675,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 2.575,
    "architecture_energy": 6.943,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.026,
    "architecture_confidence": 56.715,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 64.82,
        "rotation_up": 23.83,
        "upward_expansion": 48.69,
        "deceleration": 74.89,
        "rotation_down": 28.26,
        "downward_expansion": 24.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.503867,
        0.507818,
        0.508167,
        0.50528
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.49,
    "trend_reference": 0.503433,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.026683,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.636821,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.230552,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -21.950588,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.035433,
    "excess_performance": -0.20968,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026683,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0068,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.230552,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003693,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.219506,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046457,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035433,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.078404,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 23979,
      "relative_activity": 0.606824,
      "balance": 1.078404,
      "dry_up": 0.505996,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046782,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.178684,
      "from_high_reference": -0.121864,
      "from_low_reference": 0.088889
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.503433,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.636821,
      "structural_low": 0.45,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": -0.006061,
        "positive_rate": 0.352941,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.352941,
        "median_excess_return": -0.027765,
        "regime_survival": 0.647059,
        "best_return": 0.09375,
        "worst_return": -0.085366,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.0025,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032829,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.007905,
        "worst_return": -0.140299,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.027942,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.15105,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.25,
        "worst_return": -0.158209,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.2,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.253374,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.142857,
        "worst_return": -0.229851,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-08",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.089744,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-11-10",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.041096,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2023-12-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.107692,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-22",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.033962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.105263,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.085366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.20603,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029851,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056716,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.033333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017241,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.105634,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.031621,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.87,
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        "typical_volume": 36590.4,
        "trend": 0.720967,
        "fair_value": 0.977541,
        "relative_strength": 19.458856,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 67950.85,
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        "fair_value": 0.660288,
        "relative_strength": -16.731395,
        "stage": 4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 61625,
        "typical_volume": 65328.95,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 151340,
        "typical_volume": 65166.55,
        "trend": 0.500833,
        "fair_value": 0.659071,
        "relative_strength": -16.404428,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 13.545233,
        "energy": 14.433205,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 0.51,
        "volume": 21279,
        "typical_volume": 60670.5,
        "trend": 0.500233,
        "fair_value": 0.658365,
        "relative_strength": -17.556502,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.804152,
        "energy": 25.197447,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 55729.85,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 36.708181,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 51448.55,
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        "relative_strength": -19.406215,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 21.300959,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 0.500567,
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        "relative_strength": -19.589213,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 29.969872,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 4550,
        "typical_volume": 45806.75,
        "trend": 0.5012,
        "fair_value": 0.645654,
        "relative_strength": -19.400966,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.596154,
        "energy": 23.559407,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.51,
        "volume": 47700,
        "typical_volume": 46556.75,
        "trend": 0.501867,
        "fair_value": 0.643474,
        "relative_strength": -17.136744,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.401779,
        "energy": 14.371579,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.511867,
          0.512327,
          0.508214,
          0.505088
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.51,
        "volume": 1800,
        "typical_volume": 41475.4,
        "trend": 0.502867,
        "fair_value": 0.641103,
        "relative_strength": -17.629313,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.369503,
        "energy": 15.816125,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.510667,
          0.511927,
          0.508862,
          0.505613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.512,
        "volume": 6500,
        "typical_volume": 39810.45,
        "trend": 0.5043,
        "fair_value": 0.638872,
        "relative_strength": -16.677805,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.570822,
        "energy": 13.687447,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.511333,
          0.511891,
          0.50959,
          0.506202
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.49,
        "volume": 23979,
        "typical_volume": 39515.6,
        "trend": 0.503433,
        "fair_value": 0.636821,
        "relative_strength": -21.950588,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.575053,
        "energy": 6.943336,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.503867,
          0.507818,
          0.508167,
          0.50528
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}