{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08f557e5-f5c7-47aa-8afe-59f824b9e0d0", "symbol": "280940", "name": "Samsung Investment Trust Management - Kodex Gold Inverse Futures ETF Fund", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.453, "architecture_energy": 38.117, "architecture_maturity": 60.013, "architecture_confidence": 42.057, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.45, "rotation_up": 42.21, "upward_expansion": 67.13, "deceleration": 65.32, "rotation_down": 25.55, "downward_expansion": 17.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 3623.333333, 3639.272727, 3537.619048, 3432.784946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3475.0, "trend_reference": 3304.666667, "distance_from_trend": 0.051543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5085.833333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316729, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.368646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133768, "excess_performance": -0.09606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090752, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.330995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133768, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166097, "relative_activity": 3.023893, "balance": 1.115505, "dry_up": 1.652089, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048921, "annualized_volatility": 0.250009, "from_high_reference": -0.242919, "from_low_reference": 0.284658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3304.666667, "fair_value_reference": 5085.833333, "structural_low": 2750.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006198, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017445, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.034323, "worst_return": -0.080408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031922, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018087, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.068182, "worst_return": -0.118633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.043149, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.027759, "worst_return": -0.05854, 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"direction": 72.936865, "energy": 79.612218, "activity_lines": [ 3673.333333, 3613.727273, 3469.785714, 3368.602151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3700.0, "volume": 33187, "typical_volume": 52246.85, "trend": 3294.333333, "fair_value": 5130.544872, "relative_strength": -27.936627, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.735864, "energy": 59.535907, "activity_lines": [ 3681.333333, 3642.909091, 3503.214286, 3395.462366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3700.0, "volume": 137462, "typical_volume": 54768.05, "trend": 3302.166667, "fair_value": 5109.102564, "relative_strength": -25.180736, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.32062, "energy": 57.80158, "activity_lines": [ 3688.333333, 3665.0, 3532.928571, 3421.634409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3475.0, "volume": 166097, "typical_volume": 54928.2, "trend": 3304.666667, "fair_value": 5085.833333, "relative_strength": -24.368646, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.453345, "energy": 38.117282, "activity_lines": [ 3623.333333, 3639.272727, 3537.619048, 3432.784946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }