{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08f5a6a6-5403-43e1-a46b-003f2e57fe4e", "symbol": "TPOLY", "name": "Thai Polycons Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.058, "architecture_energy": 58.026, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 25.41, "upward_expansion": 9.2, "deceleration": 58.99, "rotation_down": 59.2, "downward_expansion": 84.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.096667, 0.101091, 0.115, 0.130387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.09, "trend_reference": 0.153667, "distance_from_trend": -0.414317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.620385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.854929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.2129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.526316, "excess_performance": -0.718641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.414317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.854929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.682129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.526316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1326000, "relative_activity": 0.511451, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.596577, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222222, "annualized_volatility": 0.672587, "from_high_reference": -0.836364, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.153667, "fair_value_reference": 0.620385, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.048611, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.686275, "median_excess_return": -0.037998, "regime_survival": 0.862745, "best_return": 0.446154, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.077844, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.123381, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.53012, "worst_return": -0.478261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.177266, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.157116, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.273585, "worst_return": -0.564815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045752, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.204724, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.1, "volume": 1624600, "typical_volume": 3326025.0, "trend": 0.174, "fair_value": 0.647179, "relative_strength": -68.444993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.557995, "energy": 77.374824, "activity_lines": [ 0.106, 0.113455, 0.131, 0.148086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 1295200, "typical_volume": 2951610.0, "trend": 0.168333, "fair_value": 0.640256, "relative_strength": -67.928033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.516566, "energy": 71.151138, "activity_lines": [ 0.102667, 0.109455, 0.126667, 0.143312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 2803800, "typical_volume": 2818300.0, "trend": 0.163333, "fair_value": 0.633333, "relative_strength": -67.157114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.551603, "energy": 64.418793, "activity_lines": [ 0.100667, 0.106545, 0.12281, 0.138903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1, "volume": 761800, "typical_volume": 2724425.0, "trend": 0.158667, "fair_value": 0.626731, "relative_strength": -65.840193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.4686, "energy": 56.724071, "activity_lines": [ 0.1, 0.104545, 0.11919, 0.134817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.09, "volume": 1326000, "typical_volume": 2592625.0, "trend": 0.153667, "fair_value": 0.620385, "relative_strength": -68.2129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.058457, "energy": 58.02572, "activity_lines": [ 0.096667, 0.101091, 0.115, 0.130387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }