{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08fa1515-4986-482c-b74d-8f2ae2cc0fee", "symbol": "MB", "name": "Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.533, "architecture_energy": 72.345, "architecture_maturity": 69.868, "architecture_confidence": 93.424, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 68.53, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 58.83, "rotation_down": 26.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.941999, 27.282181, 25.063052, 23.124773 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.639999, "trend_reference": 20.872177, "distance_from_trend": 0.372162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.034378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.904967, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.592397, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.558447, "excess_performance": 0.387555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.372162, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.904967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.415002, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.285924, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.558447, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.896647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2037347, "relative_activity": 0.486281, "balance": 6.896647, "dry_up": 0.534235, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047352, "annualized_volatility": 0.459446, "from_high_reference": -0.012073, "from_low_reference": 0.971987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.872177, "fair_value_reference": 15.034378, "structural_low": 14.523425, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.023968, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": 0.003642, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.339713, "worst_return": -0.236364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.068003, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.023737, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.403376, "worst_return": -0.189912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.143925, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.040923, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.288695, "worst_return": -0.188445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.789102, "energy": 92.532935, "activity_lines": [ 26.586667, 25.076364, 22.591571, 21.10177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.959999, "volume": 2592707, "typical_volume": 6278521.35, "trend": 19.790025, "fair_value": 14.673853, "relative_strength": 26.830761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.198607, "energy": 89.721547, "activity_lines": [ 26.783333, 25.660364, 23.205224, 21.585924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.809999, "volume": 2164721, "typical_volume": 5640128.0, "trend": 20.154865, "fair_value": 14.791009, "relative_strength": 30.393667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.11574, "energy": 87.120908, "activity_lines": [ 27.184, 26.278727, 23.856721, 22.103341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.85, "volume": 2158268, "typical_volume": 4837454.9, "trend": 20.50294, "fair_value": 14.909859, "relative_strength": 29.096562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.059378, "energy": 70.715248, "activity_lines": [ 27.495333, 26.770909, 24.452174, 22.599802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.639999, "volume": 2037347, "typical_volume": 4189653.1, "trend": 20.872177, "fair_value": 15.034378, "relative_strength": 28.592397, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.532575, "energy": 72.344721, "activity_lines": [ 27.941999, 27.282181, 25.063052, 23.124773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }