{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08fafd4b-1f6c-441c-a001-93691fadb759", "symbol": "PAJP", "name": "Invesco Markets II PLC - Invesco Msci Japan Esg Climate Paris Aligned Ucits ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.673, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.925, "architecture_energy": 28.892, "architecture_maturity": 61.365, "architecture_confidence": 79.183, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.7, "rotation_up": 33.25, "upward_expansion": 60.84, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 29.29, "downward_expansion": 19.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.810933, 4.833309, 4.780017, 4.714258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.916, "trend_reference": 4.645117, "distance_from_trend": 0.058316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.15458, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.028637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084252, "excess_performance": -0.086639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.859051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86618, "relative_activity": 2.670514, "balance": 1.859051, "dry_up": 2.472164, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027297, "annualized_volatility": 0.198309, "from_high_reference": -0.015619, "from_low_reference": 0.183153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.645117, "fair_value_reference": 4.15458, "structural_low": 4.2495, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001024, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.052625, "worst_return": -0.062737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019704, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.030001, "worst_return": -0.023334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076036, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079432, "worst_return": 0.059356, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029375, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.153339, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094408, "worst_return": -0.035657, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005854, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059362, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.592, "volume": 22235, "typical_volume": 2482.75, "trend": 3.699817, "fair_value": 3.70333, "relative_strength": -9.722684, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.950683, "energy": 27.131836, "activity_lines": [ 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"2026-07-10", "close": 4.9305, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16398.05, "trend": 4.59985, "fair_value": 4.128112, "relative_strength": -5.445474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.974746, "energy": 85.939234, "activity_lines": [ 4.922567, 4.852, 4.731033, 4.672597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.706, "volume": 48389, "typical_volume": 18817.5, "trend": 4.610717, "fair_value": 4.13433, "relative_strength": -8.353553, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.841298, "energy": 50.674361, "activity_lines": [ 4.858367, 4.834755, 4.737167, 4.679445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7225, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18817.5, "trend": 4.622067, "fair_value": 4.13983, "relative_strength": -7.737789, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.093577, "energy": 34.606376, "activity_lines": [ 4.802567, 4.821045, 4.745176, 4.686657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7685, "volume": 185731, "typical_volume": 28104.05, "trend": 4.634617, "fair_value": 4.146715, "relative_strength": -7.326452, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.6585, "energy": 22.775715, "activity_lines": [ 4.779133, 4.814455, 4.756336, 4.696104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.916, "volume": 86618, "typical_volume": 32434.95, "trend": 4.645117, "fair_value": 4.15458, "relative_strength": -7.028637, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.925081, "energy": 28.892478, "activity_lines": [ 4.810933, 4.833309, 4.780017, 4.714258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }