{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08fb5400-0f97-4ef5-a0ef-88a6d1e9b63e", "symbol": "TLS", "name": "Telos Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.633, "architecture_energy": 5.536, "architecture_maturity": 14.155, "architecture_confidence": 45.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.24, "rotation_up": 32.31, "upward_expansion": 33.64, "deceleration": 58.24, "rotation_down": 33.54, "downward_expansion": 22.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.635333, 4.646, 4.572952, 4.520452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.78, "trend_reference": 4.564333, "distance_from_trend": 0.04725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.943942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.836905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.022495, "excess_performance": -0.209949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04725, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026026, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1548920, "relative_activity": 0.481387, "balance": 0.608181, "dry_up": 0.619801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12519, "annualized_volatility": 0.462307, "from_high_reference": -0.42823, "from_low_reference": 0.695035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.564333, "fair_value_reference": 3.943942, "structural_low": 3.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007562, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012671, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.947368, "worst_return": -0.437028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.095506, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.061249, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.435088, "worst_return": -0.592516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002801, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.155495, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.985965, "worst_return": -0.531185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.514894, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.070651, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.081461, "worst_return": -0.783784, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.77, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121469, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164912, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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4.525032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.51, "volume": 2191833, "typical_volume": 3680730.8, "trend": 4.598667, "fair_value": 3.914519, "relative_strength": -20.262701, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.335369, "energy": 23.674343, "activity_lines": [ 4.694, 4.643818, 4.544762, 4.517871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.44, "volume": 2075235, "typical_volume": 3605138.4, "trend": 4.581333, "fair_value": 3.928237, "relative_strength": -22.283614, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.876972, "energy": 3.88536, "activity_lines": [ 4.606, 4.612182, 4.543048, 4.507634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.78, "volume": 1548920, "typical_volume": 3217616.1, "trend": 4.564333, "fair_value": 3.943942, "relative_strength": -20.836905, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.632811, "energy": 5.536418, "activity_lines": [ 4.635333, 4.646, 4.572952, 4.520452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }