{ "ticker": { "uuid": "08fc5b21-b16e-438e-97f1-10fb27200130", "symbol": "7010", "name": "Saudi Telecom Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.306, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.099, "architecture_energy": 18.784, "architecture_maturity": 43.742, "architecture_confidence": 86.044, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.29, "rotation_up": 19.32, "upward_expansion": 43.47, "deceleration": 82.14, "rotation_down": 45.2, "downward_expansion": 37.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.912511, 43.152918, 43.285866, 43.066169 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.380001, "trend_reference": 42.878341, "distance_from_trend": 0.0117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.966853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.59926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005004, "excess_performance": 0.036833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0117, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035993, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002622, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.275592, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14652118, "relative_activity": 1.313481, "balance": 1.275592, "dry_up": 0.992064, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017776, "annualized_volatility": 0.097413, "from_high_reference": -0.033422, "from_low_reference": 0.095297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.878341, "fair_value_reference": 37.966853, "structural_low": 39.692191, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008794, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.009789, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.056604, "worst_return": -0.055351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006795, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009159, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.041881, "worst_return": -0.129936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049506, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.139438, "worst_return": -0.093, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.596415, "energy": 23.068018, "activity_lines": [ 43.54642, 43.725684, 43.32665, 43.051876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.639267, "volume": 7129514, "typical_volume": 11237507.7, "trend": 42.771587, "fair_value": 37.847715, "relative_strength": 3.373722, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.9283, "energy": 21.447504, "activity_lines": [ 43.151825, 43.53, 43.306656, 43.046864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.718266, "volume": 6627418, "typical_volume": 10578713.3, "trend": 42.801569, "fair_value": 37.886789, "relative_strength": 2.705282, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.703316, "energy": 25.006801, "activity_lines": [ 42.896945, 43.357057, 43.287769, 43.043424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.599766, "volume": 15857529, "typical_volume": 10776354.85, "trend": 42.825651, "fair_value": 37.922755, "relative_strength": 4.307493, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.007298, "energy": 31.907031, "activity_lines": [ 42.732014, 43.170964, 43.251649, 43.030405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.380001, "volume": 14652118, "typical_volume": 11155177.1, "trend": 42.878341, "fair_value": 37.966853, "relative_strength": 3.59926, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.09865, "energy": 18.784231, "activity_lines": [ 42.912511, 43.152918, 43.285866, 43.066169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }