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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.938, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.331, "architecture_energy": 35.648, "architecture_maturity": 18.433, "architecture_confidence": 75.624, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.57, "rotation_up": 53.07, "upward_expansion": 77.44, "deceleration": 55.91, "rotation_down": 18.29, "downward_expansion": 4.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1181.316065, 1173.792588, 1154.078296, 1137.046556 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1185.71, "trend_reference": 1123.46051, "distance_from_trend": 0.055409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 888.937, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.564884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02544, "excess_performance": -0.100185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022627, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333852, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02544, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.209165, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100742, "relative_activity": 1.103808, "balance": 1.209165, "dry_up": 1.09988, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056261, "annualized_volatility": 0.220001, "from_high_reference": -0.060708, "from_low_reference": 0.281923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1123.46051, "fair_value_reference": 888.937, "structural_low": 1014.670944, 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1118.31472, 1113.267113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1181.422262, "volume": 74472, "typical_volume": 91955.8, "trend": 1112.318695, "fair_value": 869.434457, "relative_strength": -0.765128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.355817, "energy": 55.978305, "activity_lines": [ 1163.036435, 1144.972294, 1125.986263, 1117.937457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1156.670973, "volume": 97391, "typical_volume": 93567.95, "trend": 1113.732542, "fair_value": 873.34903, "relative_strength": -4.209244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.033178, "energy": 43.836117, "activity_lines": [ 1162.772097, 1148.856654, 1130.702873, 1120.798894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1177.86, "volume": 91114, "typical_volume": 93791.4, "trend": 1116.392575, "fair_value": 877.305116, "relative_strength": -1.100336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.511954, "energy": 45.124826, "activity_lines": [ 1167.96137, 1156.189001, 1137.13348, 1124.936149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1154.88, "volume": 91703, "typical_volume": 93051.85, "trend": 1118.015503, "fair_value": 881.077312, "relative_strength": -2.589125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.540402, "energy": 32.109751, "activity_lines": [ 1165.123074, 1158.58844, 1140.773561, 1127.419209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1203.54, "volume": 117975, "typical_volume": 94423.7, "trend": 1122.010623, "fair_value": 885.049614, "relative_strength": 0.267822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.229351, "energy": 37.11576, "activity_lines": [ 1177.704281, 1168.710059, 1148.629134, 1132.936918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1185.71, "volume": 100742, "typical_volume": 91267.7, "trend": 1123.46051, "fair_value": 888.937, "relative_strength": -4.564884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.330552, "energy": 35.647577, "activity_lines": [ 1181.316065, 1173.792588, 1154.078296, 1137.046556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }