{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0901d0b4-4ffd-408f-9218-1d9caf8fe8b3", "symbol": "CER", "name": "Cerillion Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.238, "architecture_energy": 92.509, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.514, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 11.42, "upward_expansion": 21.7, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 83.66, "downward_expansion": 99.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 998.666667, 1045.807438, 1143.119878, 1209.783411 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 944.0, "trend_reference": 1299.06489, "distance_from_trend": -0.273323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1496.076941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.369016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.958694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.420833, "excess_performance": -0.495531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.273323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062655, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.369016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181884, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.420833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 598852, "relative_activity": 1.256821, "balance": 0.239343, "dry_up": 1.114987, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079969, "annualized_volatility": 0.567441, "from_high_reference": -0.466642, "from_low_reference": 0.015054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1299.06489, "fair_value_reference": 1496.076941, "structural_low": 930.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.00641, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002483, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.155556, "worst_return": -0.16, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01663, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.311153, "worst_return": -0.268259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114833, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012519, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.496344, "worst_return": -0.058617, "sufficient": false }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.797783, "energy": 88.138434, "activity_lines": [ 1056.0, 1114.600728, 1192.179187, 1254.203785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 990.0, "volume": 289329, "typical_volume": 464830.15, "trend": 1307.593576, "fair_value": 1498.677109, "relative_strength": -33.361539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.775964, "energy": 91.807225, "activity_lines": [ 1031.333333, 1081.4319, 1168.494939, 1233.241061 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 944.0, "volume": 598852, "typical_volume": 476481.65, "trend": 1299.06489, "fair_value": 1496.076941, "relative_strength": -35.958694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.238011, "energy": 92.509233, "activity_lines": [ 998.666667, 1045.807438, 1143.119878, 1209.783411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }