{ "ticker": { "uuid": "090341fb-519f-47a1-9c4b-7d924b45af2c", "symbol": "002748", "name": "Jiangxi Selon Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.375, "architecture_energy": 39.142, "architecture_maturity": 35.651, "architecture_confidence": 81.826, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 20.42, "upward_expansion": 4.77, "deceleration": 57.14, "rotation_down": 47.69, "downward_expansion": 73.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.458, 10.535265, 10.965831, 11.311611 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.91, "trend_reference": 11.759183, "distance_from_trend": -0.072214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.038713, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.459211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134814, "excess_performance": -0.142213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134814, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19137700, "relative_activity": 0.869926, "balance": 0.679447, "dry_up": 1.282197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089412, "annualized_volatility": 0.399519, "from_high_reference": -0.368999, "from_low_reference": 0.225843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.759183, "fair_value_reference": 9.038713, "structural_low": 9.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002195, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015153, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.195798, "worst_return": -0.289933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.087111, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.000205, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.244967, "worst_return": -0.347424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069631, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071971, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.245514, "worst_return": -0.222723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.258401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.677208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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11.608288, 11.888917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.688899, "volume": 6350950, "typical_volume": 25245359.15, "trend": 12.115849, "fair_value": 8.988239, "relative_strength": -19.184457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.573687, "energy": 73.237085, "activity_lines": [ 10.627971, 10.986672, 11.488199, 11.793563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.22, "volume": 49370900, "typical_volume": 25984766.65, "trend": 12.102516, "fair_value": 9.008364, "relative_strength": -11.704447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.562542, "energy": 49.484145, "activity_lines": [ 10.814938, 10.950391, 11.427506, 11.735766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.76, "volume": 41703750, "typical_volume": 26018106.65, "trend": 12.089183, "fair_value": 9.020021, "relative_strength": -6.723349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.142138, "energy": 41.047086, "activity_lines": [ 10.811179, 10.859746, 11.329576, 11.649152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.38, "volume": 28081021, "typical_volume": 24054197.7, "trend": 11.96685, "fair_value": 9.021139, "relative_strength": -18.667987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.744302, "energy": 52.613085, "activity_lines": [ 10.364535, 10.554737, 11.112216, 11.474366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.36, "volume": 23906943, "typical_volume": 22743384.25, "trend": 11.82585, "fair_value": 9.027599, "relative_strength": -8.631504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.516141, "energy": 43.253571, "activity_lines": [ 10.31526, 10.480274, 11.007285, 11.370698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.91, "volume": 19137700, "typical_volume": 21999238.95, "trend": 11.759183, "fair_value": 9.038713, "relative_strength": -8.459211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.374668, "energy": 39.142009, "activity_lines": [ 10.458, 10.535265, 10.965831, 11.311611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }