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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.235, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.586, "architecture_energy": 54.409, "architecture_maturity": 18.448, "architecture_confidence": 64.237, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.56, "rotation_up": 68.27, "upward_expansion": 85.1, "deceleration": 48.58, "rotation_down": 12.59, "downward_expansion": 9.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.706, 0.681636, 0.624607, 0.603941 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.71, "trend_reference": 0.588917, "distance_from_trend": 0.205604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.424022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.67444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.795131, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.510638, "excess_performance": 0.446933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.205604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111405, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.67444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.357449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.510638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 224722, "relative_activity": 0.661979, "balance": 0.621165, "dry_up": 1.218847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132178, "annualized_volatility": 0.905926, "from_high_reference": -0.366071, "from_low_reference": 0.651163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.588917, "fair_value_reference": 0.424022, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": 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"direction": 19.556603, "energy": 45.434589, "activity_lines": [ 0.652667, 0.596727, 0.573131, 0.573532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.67, "volume": 336457, "typical_volume": 342763.3, "trend": 0.588917, "fair_value": 0.413349, "relative_strength": -7.658671, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.546565, "energy": 55.80636, "activity_lines": [ 0.666667, 0.616909, 0.583333, 0.578548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.74, "volume": 492354, "typical_volume": 354692.6, "trend": 0.588917, "fair_value": 0.417035, "relative_strength": 2.573085, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.279929, "energy": 62.942346, "activity_lines": [ 0.696, 0.646909, 0.599869, 0.588296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.71, "volume": 601515, "typical_volume": 358114.4, "trend": 0.588583, "fair_value": 0.420529, "relative_strength": -3.239806, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.485546, "energy": 57.666593, "activity_lines": [ 0.700667, 0.666545, 0.612524, 0.596108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.71, "volume": 224722, "typical_volume": 339469.95, "trend": 0.588917, "fair_value": 0.424022, "relative_strength": -5.795131, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.585522, "energy": 54.409404, "activity_lines": [ 0.706, 0.681636, 0.624607, 0.603941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }