{ "ticker": { "uuid": "090ab26a-9ab8-4443-ad36-8edf23bd2914", "symbol": "XCX3", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Malaysia UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 91.09, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.975, "architecture_energy": 18.517, "architecture_maturity": 31.622, "architecture_confidence": 60.175, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.37, "rotation_up": 30.81, "upward_expansion": 19.86, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 27.4, "downward_expansion": 56.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 1082.55, 1077.572727, 1084.107143, 1089.606989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1090.0, "trend_reference": 1094.416667, "distance_from_trend": -0.004036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 931.072551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.522733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014689, "excess_performance": -0.065925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014689, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.059714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47193, "relative_activity": 1.507174, "balance": 1.059714, "dry_up": 0.962235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023881, "annualized_volatility": 0.101985, "from_high_reference": -0.155785, "from_low_reference": 0.192886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1094.416667, "fair_value_reference": 931.072551, "structural_low": 1054.972, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.008122, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.00605, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.084431, "worst_return": -0.060087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007014, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.008513, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.078009, "worst_return": -0.017079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030694, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.011725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071287, "worst_return": 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0.010913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087342, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056426, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"fair_value": 925.316942, "relative_strength": -2.294331, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.570097, "energy": 25.17223, "activity_lines": [ 1072.5, 1074.595455, 1086.942857, 1091.348925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1078.75, "volume": 44333, "typical_volume": 34480.6, "trend": 1091.7, "fair_value": 927.205564, "relative_strength": -4.066808, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.928504, "energy": 26.055012, "activity_lines": [ 1074.683333, 1073.918182, 1085.511905, 1090.595699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1079.5, "volume": 12546, "typical_volume": 30638.45, "trend": 1093.125, "fair_value": 929.099795, "relative_strength": -5.159942, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.9438, "energy": 20.858002, "activity_lines": [ 1077.35, 1074.468182, 1084.253571, 1089.808602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1090.0, "volume": 47193, "typical_volume": 31312.25, "trend": 1094.416667, "fair_value": 931.072551, "relative_strength": -4.522733, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.974686, "energy": 18.516631, "activity_lines": [ 1082.55, 1077.572727, 1084.107143, 1089.606989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }