{ "ticker": { "uuid": "090bf2c8-7a9f-4a03-b145-578bfa9661bf", "symbol": "XDWE", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.54, "architecture_energy": 63.568, "architecture_maturity": 77.933, "architecture_confidence": 69.03, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 53.68, "upward_expansion": 81.86, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 27.55, "downward_expansion": 10.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 8949.733333, 8922.836364, 8762.571429, 8617.582796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9073.0, "trend_reference": 8449.8, "distance_from_trend": 0.073753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7455.220515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.708635, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110255, "excess_performance": 0.059019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022538, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110255, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.216938, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91291, "relative_activity": 0.982974, "balance": 2.216938, "dry_up": 1.030408, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018383, "annualized_volatility": 0.086031, "from_high_reference": -0.13889, "from_low_reference": 0.218588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8449.8, "fair_value_reference": 7455.220515, "structural_low": 7841.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.003419, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.000608, "regime_survival": 0.694444, "best_return": 0.048094, "worst_return": -0.059501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02051, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.007026, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.07884, "worst_return": -0.087772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012802, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.009033, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.137239, "worst_return": -0.06805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 8902.933333, 8834.690909, 8630.085714, 8506.821505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8939.0, "volume": 90727, "typical_volume": 96646.9, "trend": 8386.066667, "fair_value": 7421.964105, "relative_strength": 1.746608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.087872, "energy": 66.67141, "activity_lines": [ 8915.266667, 8869.218182, 8675.6, 8544.713978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8861.0, "volume": 131102, "typical_volume": 92625.85, "trend": 8418.466667, "fair_value": 7437.807054, "relative_strength": -0.340437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.047158, "energy": 58.10289, "activity_lines": [ 8893.6, 8879.927273, 8710.809524, 8575.354839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9073.0, "volume": 91291, "typical_volume": 92872.2, "trend": 8449.8, "fair_value": 7455.220515, "relative_strength": 1.708635, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.539724, "energy": 63.568342, "activity_lines": [ 8949.733333, 8922.836364, 8762.571429, 8617.582796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }