{ "ticker": { "uuid": "090c4d31-c668-4a1a-a770-58164d1d4607", "symbol": "ELM", "name": "Elementis plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.383, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 61.748, "architecture_energy": 78.208, "architecture_maturity": 19.936, "architecture_confidence": 77.558, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.81, "rotation_up": 79.37, "upward_expansion": 66.53, "deceleration": 20.85, "rotation_down": 16.26, "downward_expansion": 24.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.466667, 168.050909, 161.018334, 159.323805 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 187.2, "trend_reference": 159.42796, "distance_from_trend": 0.174198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 146.853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.512714, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.158589, "excess_performance": 0.092311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065127, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212984, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158589, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.286999, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13086673, "relative_activity": 2.137844, "balance": 3.286999, "dry_up": 1.438923, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052595, "annualized_volatility": 0.257614, "from_high_reference": -0.041965, "from_low_reference": 0.376471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.42796, "fair_value_reference": 146.853, "structural_low": 136.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102497, "worst_return": -0.205462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059107, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.025974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075537, "worst_return": -0.202159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085985, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180723, "worst_return": -0.060944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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-2.547445, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.109275, "energy": 48.855769, "activity_lines": [ 162.533333, 159.294546, 155.715966, 156.272628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 177.2, "volume": 11332107, "typical_volume": 5898971.65, "trend": 158.740463, "fair_value": 146.385922, "relative_strength": 0.924203, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.892382, "energy": 66.669538, "activity_lines": [ 168.026667, 163.003636, 157.950061, 157.487706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 187.2, "volume": 13086673, "typical_volume": 6121435.45, "trend": 159.42796, "fair_value": 146.853, "relative_strength": 6.512714, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.748379, "energy": 78.208147, "activity_lines": [ 175.466667, 168.050909, 161.018334, 159.323805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }