{ "ticker": { "uuid": "090fae3b-cc50-4e14-aafb-b13c9f27fea5", "symbol": "ROVI", "name": "Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.537, "architecture_energy": 65.042, "architecture_maturity": 51.387, "architecture_confidence": 94.702, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.81, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 27.85, "deceleration": 27.25, "rotation_down": 45.37, "downward_expansion": 77.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.726039, 57.200145, 60.091266, 64.436395 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.349998, "trend_reference": 69.04036, "distance_from_trend": -0.154842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.050498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.563833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199039, "excess_performance": -0.32347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199039, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 437122, "relative_activity": 0.775394, "balance": 0.72033, "dry_up": 1.244738, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040119, "annualized_volatility": 0.408052, "from_high_reference": -0.32699, "from_low_reference": 0.09887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.04036, "fair_value_reference": 64.050498, "structural_low": 53.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.022532, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.01247, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.104065, "worst_return": -0.186492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.148863, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.11398, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.105876, "worst_return": -0.227409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.092811, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.20337, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.211197, "worst_return": -0.355466, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 55.0406, "volume": 768056, "typical_volume": 589513.95, "trend": 69.93036, "fair_value": 63.686906, "relative_strength": -26.226864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.827565, "energy": 77.767251, "activity_lines": [ 56.233146, 57.26184, 64.038615, 67.572402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.150002, "volume": 654006, "typical_volume": 566619.3, "trend": 69.66536, "fair_value": 63.772727, "relative_strength": -26.435213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.072255, "energy": 74.641825, "activity_lines": [ 55.392427, 56.519826, 62.54904, 66.554315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.799999, "volume": 1246979, "typical_volume": 589030.4, "trend": 69.53536, "fair_value": 63.881637, "relative_strength": -21.265442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.962599, "energy": 62.8615, "activity_lines": [ 56.344548, 56.781447, 61.648036, 65.853324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 468736, "typical_volume": 574396.45, "trend": 69.377026, "fair_value": 63.971597, "relative_strength": -22.001826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.794169, "energy": 55.088707, "activity_lines": [ 57.110425, 57.009432, 60.832984, 65.147817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.349998, "volume": 437122, "typical_volume": 563741.75, "trend": 69.04036, "fair_value": 64.050498, "relative_strength": -23.563833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.53651, "energy": 65.041771, "activity_lines": [ 57.726039, 57.200145, 60.091266, 64.436395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }