{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0913a744-b395-45ab-84dc-67f6eeac2e8f", "symbol": "NUVB", "name": "Nuvation Bio Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.562, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.059, "architecture_energy": 71.637, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.48, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.97, "rotation_up": 76.64, "upward_expansion": 93.47, "deceleration": 40.07, "rotation_down": 10.9, "downward_expansion": 15.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.332667, 6.040545, 5.548952, 5.33757 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.6, "trend_reference": 5.223, "distance_from_trend": 0.263642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.288141, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.007213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.903828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157895, "excess_performance": 0.03227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.263642, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.007213, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.397927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109038, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157895, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.390411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29891387, "relative_activity": 1.128342, "balance": 4.390411, "dry_up": 1.132625, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114913, "annualized_volatility": 0.548226, "from_high_reference": -0.323077, "from_low_reference": 2.027523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.223, "fair_value_reference": 3.288141, "structural_low": 4.045, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.184932, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.149527, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.317919, "worst_return": -0.220833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.238328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.221257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.780822, "worst_return": -0.304167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.410731, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.292218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.054795, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 6.42, "volume": 37477639, "typical_volume": 25685923.5, "trend": 5.346, "fair_value": 3.229423, "relative_strength": 15.705094, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.045272, "energy": 54.339997, "activity_lines": [ 5.985333, 5.689091, 5.275762, 5.188344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.33, "volume": 28557001, "typical_volume": 25978680.8, "trend": 5.271, "fair_value": 3.258205, "relative_strength": 11.462413, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.997982, "energy": 55.404538, "activity_lines": [ 6.136667, 5.854909, 5.404, 5.251828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.6, "volume": 29891387, "typical_volume": 26491432.1, "trend": 5.223, "fair_value": 3.288141, "relative_strength": 10.903828, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.059297, "energy": 71.637457, "activity_lines": [ 6.332667, 6.040545, 5.548952, 5.33757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }